The Democratic Party’s path to maintaining control of the Senate depends on two red-state incumbents now that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has announced his retirement.
Manchin, a centrist Democrat in a deep-red state, was widely viewed as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent of the 2024 cycle. But he was also Democrats’ best, and perhaps only, hope of keeping the seat in his party’s hands.
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Speculation mounted in recent months about the West Virginia senator’s political future as poll after poll indicated he was trailing his leading GOP challenger, Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV). He finally opted against another Senate run on Nov. 9.
Without Manchin in the race, the party’s task of keeping its 51-49 majority has become even harder. Republicans only have 10 incumbents up for reelection this cycle, while Democrats have 23. Three of those 23 are in red states, including Manchin’s. The other two are Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH).
If either loses without Democrats picking up long-shot seats elsewhere on the map, Republicans will retake control of the upper chamber.
Tester opting to seek a fourth term in and of itself was a major win for Democrats, giving the party a fighting chance in a state former President Donald Trump carried by over 16 points in 2020. But Senate GOP leadership is expected to pour significant resources into the contest.
What’s more, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), is backing former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, a wealthy entrepreneur who is expected to partially self-fund his bid.
He also has the support of other home state officials, including Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) and Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT). But the possible entrance of another Montana lawmaker, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT), into the race threatens to create a contentious primary that could weaken the GOP candidate heading into a general election showdown with Tester.
The party establishment has said Rosendale’s 2018 loss to Tester proves he cannot win statewide.
Meanwhile, Brown’s reputation as an unabashed progressive in increasingly red Ohio has made him a prime target of Senate Republicans as they look to reclaim control of the upper chamber. Despite benefiting from the power of incumbency, strong name recognition, and high approval ratings, Brown’s 2024 race will be the highest-profile fight of his career.
He has three potential challengers fighting for the GOP nomination, all of whom say they’d welcome the chance to take on a Democrat in a state Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2020. Senate GOP leadership has largely stayed out of the primary contest because of the perceived quality of candidates, though the eventual nominee will still face an uphill climb to take Brown’s seat.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is investing heavily in both states to ensure the two have the necessary resources, though officials say that will be balanced with financing other must-win races. The campaign arm says it is focused on protecting incumbent Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), and Jacky Rosen (D-NV), in addition to competing for open seats in the Democratic column in Arizona and Michigan. It is also on offense in Texas and Florida, where Republican Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are up for reelection.
Outside of Brown and Tester’s races, the contest for Casey’s seat in Pennsylvania is expected to be one of the most expensive of the 2024 cycle. Pollsters say Casey, the son of former Gov. Bob Casey Sr. and the longest-serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania history, is the slight favorite, with his candidacy being boosted by the power of incumbency and strong name recognition.
Despite those strengths, Republicans argue Casey has vulnerabilities and has never had to run a tough reelection bid. The Pennsylvania senator has long cast himself as a centrist Democrat, though state Republicans say he has shifted left in recent years, attempting to tie him to President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.
Not regularly mentioned at this stage of the game is Wisconsin, where Baldwin’s progressive credentials could make her a vulnerable target. Despite being one of the most liberal members of the Senate, Baldwin is viewed as a formidable candidate, buoyed by an impressive fundraising prowess and a reputation for running an office that prioritizes constituent services.
Baldwin also benefits from the fact that Republicans failed to convince top-tier congressional candidates to get in the race despite extensive recruitment efforts. Still, Wisconsin is considered a swing state, and a win here is not guaranteed, even with committed resources.
In Nevada, Rosen is facing decorated Army veteran Sam Brown, who has the full backing of Senate Republican leadership. Brown, who must still get past a contested primary, is a strong fundraiser with a powerful personal story, having received a Purple Heart for injuries caused by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan. Rosen, a former synagogue president, is seeking her second term representing Nevada statewide, two years after Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) won reelection by fewer than 8,000 votes.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, has yet to launch her 2024 reelection campaign despite continuing to fundraise, though speculation about her political future has made Arizona the wildcard race of this cycle.
Despite her enormous influence as one of the most coveted swing votes in a closely split Senate, Sinema’s low approval ratings in Arizona and public breakup with the Democratic Party have made her the most vulnerable incumbent up for reelection in the 2024 election cycle.
The independent is remaining mum on her plans as a potential three-way race takes shape. Should she decide to seek a second term, Sinema’s race will test whether she can build enough of a centrist coalition to win statewide.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who emerged as a prominent Sinema critic as she began bucking her party under Biden, launched a bid to unseat her in January. Gallego is expected to easily win the nomination with Sinema not running in the Democratic primary.
Republican Kari Lake, the party’s 2022 gubernatorial candidate who still refuses to concede her loss to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ), launched her bid for the GOP nomination in October. She has met with NRSC leadership despite her controversial reputation as Republicans try to coalesce around a single candidate in hopes of securing a victory in a complicated three-way race.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) surprise retirement announcement in January set off significant recruitment efforts on both sides of the aisle.
The NRSC vowed in a statement at the time to “aggressively target this seat in 2024.” Now, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), its favored candidate, as well as former Rep. Peter Meijer and former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, are competing for the GOP nomination.
Democrats, meanwhile, have Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and progressive actor Hill Harper in their primary contest. Slotkin, a former CIA agent, is viewed as a competitive candidate because of her success holding on to her swing district in the House for three consecutive cycles and her impressive fundraising network. Harper, known for his role on ABC’s The Good Doctor, has said he plans to run to Slotkin’s left.
The DSCC typically doesn’t get involved in primaries when not protecting incumbents, though the committee views the Michigan contest as an incumbent race, given that Stabenow is a Democrat.
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DSCC communications director David Bergstein said in a statement to the Washington Examiner on the committee’s strategy: “Senate campaigns are candidate vs. candidate battles — and we’ve got the better candidates. Our Senate Democrats are battle tested, they’re backed by their own unique coalition of voters, and they’re running against deeply damaged and flawed Republicans — who are on the wrong side of issues like a woman’s right to make her own health care choices.”
“All of these factors, coupled with the weakness of Republican incumbents in states like Texas and Florida, are putting Democrats in a strong position to protect our Senate majority,” he added.
