There is just one month until the Iowa caucuses take place, and the countdown is on for candidates who are looking to make the final stretch count and cut down former President Donald Trump’s double-digit polling lead.
The Iowa Republican caucuses are the first nominating contest in the country and serve as a barometer as candidates look ahead to the primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. This time around Iowa could be a make-or-break moment for several candidates, either providing them momentum heading into New Hampshire or marking the end of their bid.
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Donald Trump
Trump has led in Iowa in every measure this primary cycle. And as the former president has increased his presence on the trail and his campaign has started hosting frequent commit-to-caucus events with various surrogates, his poll numbers have improved, widening his already-staggering lead.
“I would say people underestimate how organized Trump is,” Iowa Republican strategist David Kochel said, adding that he “found it interesting he was talking about margin of victory” in a recent stop in Coralville.
“He’s got his team focused,” Kochel said. “He clearly wants to end this primary quickly.”
Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus of political science at Iowa State University, claimed Trump will win the nominating contest no matter what, noting “he has big momentum.”
“At this point, it’s hard to argue that Trump seems to be dominating the campaign,” agreed Tim Hagle, associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
“Trump supporters have been unmovable thus far,” he noted.
In the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, 51% of likely Republican caucusgoers said Trump was their first choice, a marked increase from his 43% in October.
Instead, Schmidt said, “the 2024 caucuses will be important because we’ll be looking at how huge a first-place Trump gets and who comes in second.”
For example, he explained, “If Trump ‘underperforms’ and, say, DeSantis does much better than predicted, it opens a discussion about how that could impact the New Hampshire primary a week later and maybe even Super Tuesday.”
Ron DeSantis
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has long been considered the second-place candidate to Trump, and the only one with an opportunity to challenge him in the primary. But as of late, the Florida governor has been threatened by former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley encroaching on his territory in Iowa and surpassing him in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. However, DeSantis still maintains his lead over her nationally and in the Hawkeye State.
DeSantis notably chose to reroute most of his time and resources to Iowa earlier this fall, and his campaign’s future hinges on a significant showing in the state. Following Gov. Chris Sununu’s (R-NH) recent endorsement of Haley, his campaign communications director Andrew Romeo said, “What happens in New Hampshire will be significantly impacted by the outcome in Iowa, where the true Trump alternative will emerge.
“And when Ron DeSantis comes out in that position, he will be joined by over 60 New Hampshire state legislators who stand ready to take the fight to the establishment and their candidates of yesteryear to return power to grassroots conservatives,” he continued.
DeSantis’s Iowa endorsers, along with his campaign, are confident there is still time for him to win in the state.
“Iowa always breaks late,” Iowa radio host Steve Deace said. “You win Iowa by spending a year building the kind of organization that can capture late momentum, and manifest it into turnout on game day.”
DeSantis already has that organization, Deace claimed, “And he’s in the midst of a streak of positive events as we speak.”
What’s left for the Florida governor is to “figure out what message will move the half of the voters still willing to change their minds,” which he cited from the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
Dr. Cody Hoefert, who served as co-chairman of the Iowa GOP between 2014 and 2021, said DeSantis will “absolutely” have time to move the needle in these final weeks before the caucuses. “Remember, the caucus is hard to poll and it is about turnout and ground game and DeSantis has one of the best in history,” he said.
“The DeSantis ground game may help him to close the gap,” Hagle said. “But unless a lot of Trump supporters decide to move to someone else it seems that DeSantis might be relegated to a second place finish in Iowa.”
In addition to the Florida governor’s ground organization in Iowa, he enjoys the support of Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who has joined him on the campaign trail on several occasions.
Nikki Haley
Haley has benefited in Iowa from her debate momentum and second looks in New Hampshire and South Carolina. In August her footprint — a metric used in one Iowa poll that combines voters’ top two choices and those actively considering the candidate — was just 40%. By October, Haley expanded her footprint to 54%, encroaching on DeSantis and Trump’s matching 67% footprints. Since October, Haley’s numbers have remained relatively stagnant in the state, while DeSantis’s Iowa-focused work has begun to pay off in a polling boost.
Haley has balanced her campaigning between Iowa, New Hampshire, and her home state of South Carolina, opting for an all-of-the-above approach. Her campaign plans to continue its efforts through the caucuses. The former ambassador’s campaign spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas described the effort as “full steam ahead.”
“We’re going to be spending a lot of time there,” which she stressed they have been doing all along. “No one’s gonna outwork her.
“What we’ve seen is at every event, she gets new supporters,” Perez-Cubas continued. “So for us, it’s making sure she’s there sharing and spreading her message with as many people as she possibly can.”
State Sen. Chris Cournoyer, who endorsed Haley in the summer, reiterated that, saying, “It’s full steam ahead for Team Haley. The excitement around Nikki is real and Iowans are coalescing around her message for a strong and proud America.”
Perez-Cubas pointed to the $10 million ad buy between Iowa and New Hampshire, which will aid the ground effort in spreading Haley’s message in the state.
Last month, the former South Carolina governor earned the support of the Charles Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity Action, in what could be perhaps her most fruitful endorsement, given the organization’s large grassroots resources across the country. In a memo from AFP Action Senior Advisor Emily Seidel, she touted the group’s having “the largest grassroots operation in the country and a presence in all fifty states.”
Seidel said the endorsement of Haley would come with “thousands of AFP Action activists and grassroots leaders into the field—with a focus on the early primary states—knocking on doors and urging voters to support Nikki Haley.” The organization also launched “extensive mail, digital, and connected television campaigns to supplement those on-the-ground efforts.”
Despite that, Hagle said, closing the gap between Haley and Trump also seems unlikely.
“The support of AFP Action will give her ground game a boost,” he said. “That could make her more competitive with DeSantis but Trump may be out of reach.”
That does not mean the end for Haley, however. Schmidt reiterated that “‘Winning’ the Iowa caucuses (as in number one) is not necessary to do well.” He recalled Trump’s 2016 finish behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), after which he won the nomination and the general election.
As Republican strategists have pointed out, Haley could manage with a strong finish in Iowa and not necessarily in first place.
There are several other states in play. Kochel noted that Iowa may not be the venue for someone to defeat Trump, but “someone needs to win a state.”
The primary “needs to be one-on-one somewhere,” he added. New Hampshire, the second nominating contest, “would be the best place to make a run.”
Haley is notably in a good position in the state, where she is in second place to Trump with an upward polling trend and has just earned the governor’s seal of approval.
Vivek Ramaswamy
While Vivek Ramaswamy has appeared to stagnate in measures across the country despite some initial excitement about his outsider campaign, he has shown no signs of slowing down his ground effort. According to his campaign, he plans to have completed the “full Grassley,” which is visiting all 99 counties in Iowa twice by either Jan. 5 or 6, 2024, days before the caucuses. Ramaswamy also recently predicted that he would “overperform expectations” in the state come caucus night.
In Iowa, Ramaswamy has managed to move the needle only one point between August and December, going from 4% to 5% support among Republicans. His footprint began at 34%, lower than others, and declined to 32% by October. However, the number back to 38% in the latest poll in December.
Not everyone is so sure, however. “At this point Ramaswamy is little more than a disruptor,” Hagle said.
“The best he could hope for would be a fourth-place finish in the high single digits,” he added. “That would at least let him argue that he performed better than some polls we’re seeing now.”
Chris Christie
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie garnered 5% support in August in Iowa and has managed to maintain that share, losing only one percentage point by December, despite making no investment in the state. Christie’s campaign has been tied to the similarly important first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire, where he likely believes his politics resonate better. The former New Jersey governor is right about that, it turns out. In the newest Iowa poll, likely Republican caucusgoers saw Christie as the most centrist candidate, with 42% saying he was “too moderate.” Just 26% of respondents believed his views were “just right.”
It is unclear whether Christie plans to alter his New Hampshire-centric campaign in the coming weeks to garner some support in Iowa ahead of the caucuses.
Christie’s campaign did not provide comment on its plans for Iowa in the next month.
Sununu’s endorsement of Haley was considered a slap in the face to Christie, who shares similar politics with the New Hampshire governor and is also a vocal critic of Trump. Following the endorsement, his campaign said it puts him down only one vote in the state and indicated they had no plan to slow down.
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Given the campaign’s seemingly unwavering New Hampshire focus, it is unlikely he will make a last-minute switch to campaign in Iowa.
Hagle said the candidates are expected to take some time off during Christmas and New Year’s, but the final two weeks before the caucuses will be the real difference maker. “The candidates should be making their closing arguments then and we should have a sense of whether we’re seeing any movement to one candidate or another,” he said.
