Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s 2024 presidential campaign will face the first true test of her momentum in the Iowa caucuses next month, which could serve as an additional boost going into New Hampshire or an obstacle to her securing the Republican nomination.
After securing the backing of the billionaire Charles Koch-linked Americans for Prosperity Action, Haley gained a widespread grassroots effort with significant cash backing. The group, which already had an expansive operation in Iowa, is expected to bolster Haley’s campaign, but the endorsement has also opened the door for Haley to be criticized should she not reach expectations.
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And as AFP focuses its vast mobilization effort behind Haley’s campaign — the group told Bloomberg that it sends out roughly 150 volunteers to door knock each day and has connected with over 300,000 Iowa voters since the endorsement specifically — the DeSantis campaign has suggested this massive endorsement puts additional pressure on Haley to finish in second.
In a Tuesday email, DeSantis’s campaign said, “Wall Street is going all in on Nikki Haley in Iowa, spending $70 million to buy a ‘strong second’ for her in the Hawkeye State,” referring to the $70 million raised by AFP for political races in 2024, much of which is now expected to go toward Haley.
“The ideal finish would of course [be] finish first,” said Marlys Popma, a former Republican operative who issued an impromptu endorsement of Haley last month during a campaign event in Iowa.
“She doesn’t need to do that,” she said. “I think she needs to finish a strong second or third.”
Strategists, political scientists, and veterans of the caucuses consistently stress the fact that Iowa should not be viewed as a “winner takes all” competition. Instead, they’ve pointed out, the state’s Republican caucuses are a moment to determine which candidates have what it takes to make it to the finish line.
And for Haley, whose popularity and polling surge have been most prominent in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina, the stakes in the Hawkeye State aren’t quite as high as they are for others.
Iowa Republican strategist David Kochel believes “the expectations burden in Iowa is mostly on [former President Donald] Trump and [Gov. Ron] DeSantis [R-FL].”
Trump has notably led the primary field by a wide margin in every measure since the beginning of the primary campaign cycle and would be expected to keep such a strong lead in the first nominating contest. As for DeSantis, his campaign has gone all in on Iowa, focusing most of its time and resources on the state, which his team says will provide him momentum going into New Hampshire, where he isn’t performing as well.
According to Steffen Schmidt, professor emeritus of political science at Iowa State University, Haley needs the energy that would come from a second-place finish in order to build on her “impressive” New Hampshire momentum.
However, Schmidt said if Haley comes in third in the caucus, “we will explain it away by the fact that in Iowa, it is evangelicals who turn out in big numbers, and they don’t like her position on abortion,” with New Hampshire being “more secular.”
Kochel claimed Haley would likely “be thrilled with anything ahead of DeSantis.” But even if she doesn’t beat DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses, “as long as she keeps it close to him, I don’t think she’s at risk of slipping in” New Hampshire, he added.
Schmidt noted that “in the end, Trump has so much momentum that it will be a monumental job to slow or stop him,” emphasizing how significant a finish Haley or DeSantis would need in order to present a challenge to the former president.
Typically, Popma pointed out, three tickets come out of Iowa, and “she needs to have one of those three tickets.” She added that she thinks Haley will defy expectations in Iowa before taking on New Hampshire, “where it all takes off.”
In the December Des Moines Register-NBC News-Mediacom Iowa poll, Trump led with 51%, higher than the last poll in October. DeSantis followed with 19%, Haley 15%, Vivek Ramaswamy 5%, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 4%. If this poll accurately depicts the caucuses, which many warn that it may not, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley would be the three tickets set to be competitive in New Hampshire.
When Popma endorsed Haley, she urged fellow Iowans to caucus for the candidate that excites them, disregarding who seems most likely to win. She explained this is because the caucuses are “a different animal” and can often yield unexpected results, defying polls.
“I believe there is a good percentage of people who walk into the caucuses not 100% committed to a candidate,” she predicted. Her expectation is upheld by the latest Iowa poll, which showed that while 49% say they’ve decided on a candidate, a significant 46% are still open to being persuaded.
Popma was included in a list in February naming her one of the 50 “most wanted” Iowa Republicans expected to be influential in the state’s caucuses. Her endorsement is expected to be fruitful for Haley, especially as Popma plans to caucus for her and speak on her behalf.
Popma believes Haley could outperform current projections because “she’s incredibly personable, very likable,” which is something she has over DeSantis.
“She’s a full package,” she added.
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“Iowa’s just a really comfortable feeling place to be, and I think a lot of the South is that same way, and that’s why I think she connects so well when she comes here because she doesn’t have to be anything different than how she was raised,” Popma said of Haley’s connection with voters in the state.
The Iowa caucuses will take place Jan. 15.
