The new year will begin with a slate of special elections that could shift the balance of power in the House — even ahead of the 2024 November elections.
Several incumbents have announced their early retirements from the House, opening up a handful of seats that must be filled just as the 2024 cycle gets underway. The House must fill four seats come early next year, including three being vacated by retiring members and the one former New York Rep. George Santos occupied before lawmakers voted to expel him.
Here is a breakdown of all the special elections in the House and how they could affect the lower chamber and the 2024 ballot:
New York’s 3rd Congressional District (George Santos)
One of the most high-profile special elections coming up next year will be the one to replace Santos, a Republican, who was ousted from the House in early December, making him only the sixth member of Congress ever to be removed.
The race is expected to draw a lot of attention as Democrats aim to flip the seat and narrow the GOP’s already-slim majority. Both parties and their respective candidate committees are already looking at the race and how it will play a role in possibly shifting the balance of power for the remainder of this Congress.
Democrats and Republicans have already chosen their desired nominees, with the special election scheduled for Feb. 13, 2024. Democrats tapped former Rep. Tom Suozzi to run for his old seat while Republicans chose state legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip, who is seen as a rising star in the party after she was elected in 2021 on a platform largely focused on battling antisemitism and supporting Israel.
Whoever wins will carry out the rest of Santos’s term and will be put in a good position to be reelected later in the year.
Democratic groups are already vowing to get involved with the election, which will take place in a toss-up district. The House Majority PAC, a super PAC dedicated to electing Democrats to the lower chamber, said it plans to “play a significant role” in the special election and “will do whatever it takes to flip this district blue.”
But Republicans will not give up so easily, especially as the seat is one of four districts the party was able to flip in 2022 to help win control of the House.
California’s 20th Congressional District (Kevin McCarthy)
The House has a second empty seat effective Sunday when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will resign from Congress. Once that day passes, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) will have two weeks to schedule a date for the special election to replace him.
McCarthy’s departure is a loss for Republicans as it will further dwindle the party’s majority, albeit temporarily, by leaving two of its seats vacant. His early exit also leaves the party without one of its most prominent members.
A number of candidates have already declared their bids to replace McCarthy, including Republican Assemblyman Vince Fong, whom McCarthy has endorsed as his successor, but has since failed to qualify for the ballot. Other Republican candidates include Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, businessman David Giglio, casino owner Kyle Kirkland, and businessman Matt Stoll. The district is considered to be safely Republican.
McCarthy announced he would be stepping down just two months after he was ousted from the speakership, which marked the first time in history that the House voted to remove its leader. McCarthy initially said he would not resign before his term expired, later reversing course to leave by the end of the year.
Ohio’s 6th Congressional District (Bill Johnson)
Republicans are expected to lose another seat sometime in March with the resignation of Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH), who announced he would be stepping down early to take a job as president of Youngstown State University.
His departure could further decrease House Republicans’ majority depending on his resignation date and whether it overlaps with the two aforementioned special election dates. However, the seat is expected to remain in GOP control as it is a heavily Republican district that Trump won by nearly 30 points in 2020.
Johnson said the decision to leave Congress early was extremely difficult and that he was offered the position even though he was not looking for another job.
“This was an extremely difficult decision,” Johnson said in a statement. “This is not a goodbye, however. I will continue serving in the House for several more months, and you will see no let up. My offices are open and my staff remains ready to serve you. There is still much left on my agenda to do before I depart Congress, including doing all I can to help pass tax exemption legislation to benefit the people of East Palestine as well as a broader rail safety bill, streamline America’s LNG export process, and advance a responsible budget and spending package for the remainder of this fiscal year. It’s business as usual.”
It is not yet clear when Johnson will officially resign, although it is expected to be after March.
New York’s 26th Congressional District (Brian Higgins)
To Republicans’ benefit, Johnson’s departure will be counteracted by at least one Democratic retirement: Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY).
Higgins announced earlier this year he would be stepping down from his House seat, citing dysfunction caused by the Republican majority. Instead, the Democrat has accepted a position as president and CEO of Shea’s Performing Arts Center in Buffalo, New York.
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“It’s all individuals that have weaponized the legislation-making process,” Higgins said of his decision. “And this is where I think the current leadership of the House has failed miserably. They’re the poster child for dysfunction right now, as evidenced by their own inability to identify what they want and to develop a strategy to achieve what it is they want.”
Higgins will resign effective Feb. 2, 2024, after which Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) must schedule a special election to replace him. It will be the state’s second special election in 2024 after the replacement of Santos.
