Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley is in second place in the latest Iowa poll, surpassing Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), but former President Donald Trump is still in the lead, raising questions about whether either of his opponents has any chance to catch up.
The Iowa poll shows 48% of Republicans chose Trump as their first choice for the GOP nomination — followed by Haley at 20% support, DeSantis at 16%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%.
The latest poll shows Trump’s support has dropped only slightly since the December 2023 Iowa poll that found the former president in the lead at 51%, Desantis at 19%, and Haley at 16%. In October, Trump held a 27-percentage-point lead in the Iowa poll, while DeSantis and Haley were locked in a battle for second place.
If Trump’s lead is as strong as the polling is showing, it could be the largest margin of victory for a nonincumbent candidate competing in Iowa’s GOP caucuses. The record margin is 13 points, set in 1988 by Bob Dole.
The poll can show the rise of a late-surging candidate. For example, pollster J. Ann Selzer’s final poll in 2012 showed Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) rising in the final days before the caucuses, and he ultimately passed Mitt Romney and won. The Pennsylvania senator was also in sixth place in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
“Santorum was polling around 4%, 5% — if they had the same rules on debates then, he wouldn’t have been in a single debate,” Selzer said in an interview with the Washington Examiner last week. “The first night of our final poll, I looked at the data the next morning, and he’s got 10 or 11%. He was in double digits.”
DeSantis has gone all in on Iowa, aggressively campaigning across all corners of the state, completing his “Full Grassley” last month, a reference to Sen. Chuck Grassley’s (R-IA) tradition of visiting with voters in all 99 counties in the state. There are high stakes for the Florida governor on Monday after making the Hawkeye State the priority in his presidential bid.
Bob Vander Plaats, the evangelical leader who endorsed DeSantis in November 2023, downplayed the significance of the polling numbers at a campaign stop in West Des Moines on Saturday.
“Well, take a look at the RealClearPolitics average — 16%, I think, is where it’s at right now,” Vander Plaats said. “He’s gonna do better than that.”
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Even though Haley has moved into second place in the Iowa poll for the first time, there are a couple of warning signs. The survey suggests there could be an enthusiasm gap. The poll found that 32% of all likely Republican caucusgoers say they are “extremely enthusiastic” about their candidate, including half of Trump’s supporters, 23% of DeSantis’s supporters, and just 9% of Haley’s supporters. That percentage is down from 21% who said that about her in the last Iowa poll.
In addition, Haley’s unfavorability ratings are now at 46%, up from 31%. The former South Carolina governor’s favorability has fallen from 59% to 48%.
