The Iowa caucuses are underway as GOP voters cast the first ballots of the 2024 cycle, creating a make-or-break moment for several candidates as they push to keep their presidential aspirations alive.
The caucuses began at 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. EST) as voters gathered in their local precincts to listen to last-minute speeches by presidential candidates and their surrogates before casting ballots for their preferred nominee. The process marks the first nominating event in the country, a contest that Republican candidates have often relied on to help clear the field and boost their campaign on the national level.
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The stakes are high for each candidate, especially those trying to cut away at former President Donald Trump’s front-runner status in the Hawkeye State. The most recent polls show Trump with a 34-point lead over his closest challenger, according to the RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polling.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been polling at second with an average of 19% support, followed closely by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) with 16%, pitting the two in a tight race for second place, a coveted outcome that could boost their national standing in other primary states.
Trump has the most to win in Iowa as the former president has dominated polling in the months leading up to the caucuses, making him the overwhelming favorite. However, Trump faces pressure to overperform as he has previously bragged of being up as much as 60 points as his competitors.
Opponents have seized on that messaging to raise expectations for Trump, arguing a performance of less than 50% of the vote would indicate a sense of slowed momentum for his reelection bid. Haley is especially leaning on that narrative, sending an email to supporters on Monday to increase the stakes for the former president in Iowa.
In response, Trump has sought to rein in expectations, expressing confidence in a caucus victory but refraining from predicting a percentage.
Meanwhile, the stakes are especially high for DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who is currently polling around 7%.
The two candidates wagered much of their campaigns on the Iowa caucuses, visiting all 99 of the state’s counties, with Ramaswamy completing that trip twice. Even a third-place finish could spell doom for their campaigns as candidates turn their focus to New Hampshire next week, where both DeSantis and Ramaswamy have trailed their opponents in the polls.
A low performance for either of them could push them to suspend their campaigns, narrowing the field and possibly giving a boost to Haley as she seeks to further cut away at Trump’s lead.
Haley has much to win on Monday night, as a second-place finish could catapult her national standing ahead of the New Hampshire contests, where she’s managed to trim Trump’s lead into the single digits. A strong showing could also give her a boost in her home state of South Carolina before the state’s primary election next month as she seeks to secure the GOP nomination against her former boss.
Voters must also contend with historically low temperatures as they venture to and from their local precincts on Monday night as it’s not expected to rise above negative 2 degrees for the night, and the windchill will make it feel like 35 degrees below zero. That puts the night on track to be the coldest Iowa caucus in history, raising concerns from different campaigns that it could negatively affect voter turnout.
However, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said he expects “robust turnout” on Monday despite the cold weather.
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“As long as there’s not ice that actually makes it impossible to travel and as long as we don’t have whiteout conditions, snow actually falling — I think temperatures are the least of my concern in terms of depressing turnout,” he said at an event hosted by Bloomberg Television. “Iowans know how to dress for that.”
It’s not yet clear how soon voters will know the results of the Iowa caucuses. Votes are continuously collected, counted, and announced as the night goes on, with party leaders expected to report results as they come in.
