Ahead of November, the Democratic Party has promoted record candidate recruitment numbers and historic spending as indicators the country should prepare for a blue wave this election cycle. Republicans say that’s not enough, warning that money and candidates don’t compare to being able to tap into what voters truly care about when trying to flip red seats.
Democrats have both candidates and money, and they’ve flooded swing states with campaign staffers and canvassers. In Wisconsin, newly drawn state legislative maps have empowered Democrats to recruit candidates for every state Senate seat on the ballot for the first time in over 20 years. The same goes for Florida — where even in the bright-red state, Democrats have recruited candidates to contest every state legislative race for the first time in 30 years.
The trend continues in other swing states, too. The party has recruited candidates to run for every seat in Michigan, where it hopes to protect its vulnerable majority, and in Arizona, where it hopes to flip seats. Democrats recruited candidates even in red-leaning North Carolina in all 50 state Senate races and 119 of 120 House races as they attempt to break the Republican supermajority.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has poured historic levels of funding into flipping states this November. DLCC press secretary Samantha Paisley said its $10 million “Summer of the States” campaign denotes another historic effort to leave a blue mark on state legislatures. Paisley called the campaign, unveiled last week, a “historic, first-of-its-kind investment.”
“It’s the most that we’ve ever announced at this stage of the cycle,” Paisley told the Washington Examiner. “It is, again, going to our targets, and it’s really sounding the alarm on why we can’t wait until September or October to think about the state legislative level.”
Their main priorities are, in order: protecting vulnerable Democrats in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota; flipping states with vulnerable republican majorities such as Arizona and New Hampshire; and building momentum in North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Top Republican strategists and political leaders concede Democrats have far outspent the GOP, but they said this doesn’t phase them.
One of Minnesota’s top Republicans deflected worries during an interview with the Washington Examiner.
“Democrats at least recently seem to outrace Republicans and outspend Republicans, but they don’t seem to get the bang for their buck,” said David Hann, the Wisconsin GOP chairman. “Two years ago, during the statewide races [in Minnesota], they outspent Republicans by nearly 10 to 1 and only won by 2,000 votes.”
New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Christopher Ager said Democrats also outspend Republicans in his state to the tune of 3-to-1 in state funding, and 5-to-1 in out-of-state spending. But Ager said he remains optimistic.
“We still maintain control of the state House because we have the policies that are in sync with the voters of New Hampshire,” the chairman told the Washington Examiner.
Ager pointed out recent Republican wins in New Hampshire that make him dismiss Democrats’ financial advantage. As 2023 came to a close, Republican Jay Ruais successfully challenged four-term Democratic Mayor Joyce Craig in Manchester, flipping the city red for the first time in years.
A running theme among GOP strategists and leaders is their party’s focus on the economy, immigration, and crime as winning issues with voters.
“The issues Republicans want to talk about are issues, concerns that most ordinary people have to confront in their daily lives,” Hann noted. “Inflation, economy, immigration, flooding, the border, public safety, crime. These are all things that Democrats seem to just ignore.”
Ager made the same claim: “There are three things voters are talking about … the economy and inflation, No. 1. No. 2 in the cities is crime, homelessness, and drug problems. … And the third one is the open border, immigration, and all of the problems that come with that.” Ager said the “better approach to politics” is “all about offering policies and positions that make the lives of the people living the state better. That’s it. … We want to help make the lives of people better.”
“Democrats have no interest in those things,” Hann contrasted. “They want to talk about abortion, and they want to talk about transgender policies and things that have, I think, very, very limited effect on most people’s lives.”
Key Democratic strategists said the top-of-line issues for voters are abortion and LGBT rights. It was the first thing Wisconsin Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer, a Democrat, brought up when asked what is driving voters this election cycle.
“Some of the issues we have heard repeatedly on the doors already this year are abortion,” the Democratic leader told the Washington Examiner. “A very important issue for people in Wisconsin who lost access to comprehensive reproductive healthcare for a time after the fall of Roe.”
Wisconsin Sen. Jeff Smith, a Democrat, said he agreed.
“Of course, we’re going to hear a lot about the fact that reproduction rights are really important,” he said.
When pressed on whether inflation or immigration might be more important to voters than abortion or transgender issues, Democrats pushed back.
“The economy and the immigration issue are certainly issues that are on top of people’s list as well,” Smith said. “But the economy is going really well. And we have record low unemployment right now in Wisconsin.”
Paisley said she believes sometimes the most important issue is “the economy and sometimes it is abortion. I think voters understand very clearly that the fundamental freedoms are being decided by state legislatures. So it’s that whole range of issues from abortion to, you know, democracy to gun violence.”
Ager was quick to push back, saying polling shows abortion isn’t the top concern for voters in his state. In January, a poll conducted by the Boston Globe, USA Today, and Suffolk University surveyed both Democratic and Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. When asked what was the most important issue facing the country, abortion scored near the bottom of the list, under 5%. The top issue was the future of American democracy, at nearly 30%, followed by immigration and border security, around 25%, and the economy, at roughly 17%.
The New Hampshire Republican said he thinks the Democratic Party is trying to weaponize issues to motivate voters to get to the ballot box.
“They’re running on fearmongering and lies about an abortion,” Ager said. “The Democrats will try to instill fear and distrust because they have nothing else to run on.”
Ager made a similar claim that the Democratic Party has pushed anti-abortion voters out of its coalition. He told the Washington Examiner that while the Republican Party has “pro-choice and pro-life Republicans,” it’s hard to “find a pro-life Democrat. They’re not welcome.”
Hann echoed the thought. “There used to be many Democrats statewide [in Minnesota], who were very pro-life,” he said. “They’re all gone. There are no pro-life Democrats in Minnesota.”
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As he wrapped up an interview with the Washington Examiner, Smith touched once more on how voters will determine whether to vote red or blue this November while sounding a note more reminiscent of independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s centrist rhetoric than the progressive wing of his party.
“We all want the same things. We want security. We want to feel secure in our community. We want to have strong schools for our children,” Smith said. He finished with the distinguishing factor between his party and the GOP: “It’s how we get there that is really the only difference.”
