Republicans have been pushing during the 2024 election to get their voters to use early and mail-in voting, after years of urging against the methods, and it appears their efforts may be turning the tide.
Former President Donald Trump led the chorus of skeptics in the GOP regarding early and mail-in ballots in the 2020 election, renewing those calls in the 2022 elections. Republican losses in both of those elections were partly blamed on the GOP voters not utilizing early voting methods, as the Democratic Party had.
Arizona has been one of the top states where Republicans had expressed skepticism over early voting, but now Republican candidates and GOP aligned groups have attempted to boost GOP early voting turnout. The results from July’s GOP primary show progress.
Republicans entered the final days of the early voting period with a significant lead in turnout after the emphasis on early options to cast a ballot. Comparing the marquee Republican primary races in the past two cycles, the 2022 gubernatorial race and the 2024 Senate race, there is an uptick in the share of early votes compared to polling place votes between the two years.
In the 2022 GOP gubernatorial primary, roughly 79.82% of those voting used early voting methods compared to 83.67% of voters using early ballots in the 2024 Republican Senate primary.
When looking at the voters in both primaries who cast ballots for Kari Lake, who has mirrored Trump’s views on several matters including voter fraud claims and early voting, there was a more notable uptick in how many of her voters used early voting. In 2022, 73.38% of her voters cast their ballots early, compared to 81.14% of her voters who did so in the 2024 primary.
While the uptick is encouraging for Republicans in Arizona, the general election on Nov. 5, will be the true test of whether the GOP’s efforts have worked.
The Republican National Committee launched the “Bank Your Vote” initiative in June 2023, attempting to reassure voters that by using one of the early methods, their vote is secure and safe – just like voting in person on Election Day.
The first test for the GOP’s early voting push came in the 2023 Virginia state legislative elections, where Republicans wanted to win control of both chambers in an uphill fight due to redistricting. While the GOP narrowly failed to win control of either chamber, the seemingly successful push to get Republican voters comfortable with using early voting methods was one bright spot of the off-year election.
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Trump, who still expresses his concerns over early voting from time to time, has largely gotten on board with the GOP’s early voting push.
The RNC and Trump have encouraged Republican voters to “swamp the vote,” contending that they should make it “too big to rig” — a reference to Trump’s continued allegations of voter fraud pushed by Democrats in previous elections. There has been no evidence suggesting voter fraud affected the results of races that Trump has made allegations about, including the 2020 presidential election.
