CNNdata reporter Harry Enten warned that the latest polling could be underestimating support for Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and predicted she may win “easily.”
With less than one week until Election Day, Enten also said that the presidential race, which many deem to be tight based on “imperfect” polls, may result in former President Donald Trump winning “rather easily.”
“Poll after poll after poll continue to show just how exceedingly tight this presidential race is,” CNN anchor Jake Tapper said as he opened a segment on Wednesday analyzing the latest 2024 presidential polling. “Polls are not 100%. Far from it.”
Tapper turned to Enten, asking, “Some polls in past races have been way off the mark. Why?”
“Polls are a signal. They ain‘t no Nostradamus, my dear friend,” he responded. “They take a sample of the population, but you don‘t necessarily know who‘s going to turn out and vote on Election Day.”
Enten continued, “And so I want to put in some simple stats for you, and get your audience to understand that polls are far from perfect.”
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The CNN data reporter explained how the average error in state polling in battleground states since 1972 has been 3.4 points. He added that 5% of polls in key battleground states have missed by more than 9.4 percentage points.
“Let’s say you have a 6-point lead in a key state. That’s not necessarily safe,” Enten said.
He then concluded that “poll after poll has shown this race to be way too close to call.”
“The polls are imperfect,” Enten said.
He warned that you shouldn’t “be surprised if either Kamala Harris wins easily or, in the case of this battleground map, Donald Trump wins rather easily.”
“That‘s why I stopped using polls last week,” Tapper said.
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Polling journalist Nate Silver has warned that Trump’s support has been underestimated.
Numerous Trump supporters have cheered on the positive-leaning polls in favor of the former president, but the Washington Examiner’s Byron York has cautioned that there are “good reasons to avoid irrational exuberance.”
