Former President Donald Trump is campaigning as if he’s got the race wrapped up, projecting the confidence of an ultimate salesman. However, he could risk complacency among would-be voters if they believe the election is all but over.
Trump is vigorously campaigning across the country in the final days before Election Day, a sign that he’s working hard for a chance to return to the White House. His closing message, however, has included claims that Vice President Kamala Harris is inept and losing badly.
“We’re leading by a lot in Nevada. We’re leading by a lot in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even states that are typically never in play,” Trump boasted during a campaign stop in Las Vegas. “Big states are all in play.”
However, the actual poll numbers are much closer.
Trump has undoubtedly gained strength, but national polls show the race tied, and very few swing state polls have shown either candidate with a lead outside the margin of error. He has even talked about winning Colorado, a state where Harris enjoys an 11-point polling advantage.
While Trump is known for his showman personality and will always project strength, there are some indications that a sense of confidence has leaked into the Republican atmosphere. Axios reported that Republicans are “shockingly confident” about the outcome, already talking privately about policy playbooks and new jobs in January.
Trump’s confidence has spread to his top surrogates, with Vivek Ramaswamy suggesting Republicans could pull off a “unifying landslide.”
GOP members who spoke to the Washington Examiner insisted that Trump’s team is fully committed behind the scenes and taking nothing for granted.
“I’m less focused on what President Trump says about where he can win, and more focused on what his campaign does so he can win,” said Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary. “The 2024 campaign is run by sophisticated professionals, all of whom know not to be overconfident. They will sprint through the finish line.”
Similarly, Scott Jennings, a CNN commentator and longtime adviser to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), said he’s prepared for either outcome but not doubting the Trump team’s instincts.
“I don’t think the Trump campaign is underestimating Harris at all,” he said. “Based on my observations and conversations, they are all in on finishing this thing at full throttle.”
That message is emanating from the campaign itself, if not necessarily from its principal. Donald Trump Jr. told the Washington Examiner’s Paul Bedard the Trump team “always runs like we’re two points behind.”
There’s no doubt Trump is in his best position ever heading into an election.
At this stage in 2016, he trailed Hillary Clinton by 5 points nationally in a race he would go on to win. In 2020, Trump trailed President Joe Biden by 8 points. He outperformed his polling both times, so if that pattern holds, Trump is almost certain to win this time around.
However, pollsters are aware that they missed it and have tried to adjust their models accordingly.
“If anything, the pollsters may be oversampling Republicans to make up for the past mistakes,” said Sandy Maisel, a former Democratic operative and professor emeritus at Colby College. “They are really doing it different now.”
That doesn’t mean Maisel is bullish on Harris. He said he wants her to win but admits he thinks Trump has the upper hand right now.
Trump has been taking a few risks in the final stretch. He has campaigned in New York and California, for example, two states where he is almost certain to lose. Some see that as a play for downballot races in the House, but it is a risk either way.
Former President George W. Bush’s adviser Karl Rove said during a Zoom event Thursday that if he were advising the Trump campaign, he’d tell them to spend every moment in the battleground states.
Rove, for what it’s worth, isn’t impressed with Harris’s strategy either. He says her closing argument of comparing Trump to Adolf Hitler won’t win her any new votes and could backfire by energizing Trump’s base.
He predicted there would still be at least one more surprise before Election Day on Nov. 5. Rove also felt that the outside dynamics of the election, such as two-thirds of voters saying the country is on the wrong track, suggested that Trump should win.
Trump has been unafraid to hurl insults at Harris, calling her lazy and saying she has a low IQ. He has called her a s*** vice president, suggested she’s on drugs, and said she’s worse than Biden, who the Democratic Party yanked from the ticket in July.
Harris, however, has raised more than a billion dollars to support her election bid and has two former presidents and A-list celebrities lining up to campaign with her.
Harris hasn’t lost a nonpresidential election since her first race more than 20 years ago, moving from local to state to national politics in a string of victories. The level of donations suggests buy-in from deep-pocketed backers who still believe in her candidacy.
She has been rumored to be seeking the presidency as an ultimate goal since at least 2009, when she still held a local office in San Francisco. Former President Barack Obama has been a fan of Harris since at least 2013 and is now storming the country on her behalf as she seeks the White House.
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However, Republicans are saying Trump and his backers know exactly what they’re up against and see Harris as a formidable and worthy opponent who will not go down lightly.
“Trump deserves a huge amount of credit for picking the right team, sticking with them, and letting them execute a plan that has them at the threshold of winning,” Jennings said. “They gotta walk through the door in a few days, but there’s no doubt that they are in a position to do it.”
