The FIFA World Cup draw offers a friendly, in-person chance for the leaders of Mexico and Canada to discuss favorable terms for a new trade deal with President Donald Trump.
At noon on Friday, Trump, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will take part in the ceremonial ball draw, where the placements of the 2026 FIFA World Cup teams will be chosen. As is often the case with international sports, the ceremony invites a chance for a diplomatic breakthrough with Trump and his sometimes tense relationship with the two leaders. Trump will have a prominent speaking role at the ceremony, hosted at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, while the three will take part in the drawing together.
Several outlets have reported that Trump, Carney, and Sheinbaum will meet on the sidelines of the event to discuss trade at a crucial juncture, after fears grow that Trump will not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is set to expire next year. Canada and Mexico fear that the end of the agreement would wreak havoc on all three economies.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has a deadline to brief Congress on the USMCA on Jan. 2, 2026, when the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw or renegotiate the deal will be announced.
Though Trump has leveled tariffs against some Canadian and Mexican products, the vast majority of Canadian and Mexican goods remain exempt from tariffs under the USMCA. This has helped keep prices in check, failing to usher in economic problems warned of by economists earlier this year.
Greer downplayed catastrophic predictions from Canada and Mexico over the possible consequences if the USMCA falls through.
“The president’s view is he only wants deals that are a good deal,” he told Politico. “The reason why we built a review period into USMCA was in case we needed to revise it, review it, or exit it. I have heard from a lot of folks how important USMCA is. … Sometimes you’ll hear people say, ‘Oh, well, you know, USMCA, it’s a $31 trillion agreement.’ It’s like, ‘Well, yeah, but like $29 trillion is us.’ So, I mean, I think it makes sense to talk to them separately about that agreement.”
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Though the U.S. holds most of the cards in negotiations, nearly one-third of its $5.4 trillion in global trade is with Mexico and Canada. The three-nation bloc is one of the largest free-trade groups on the planet, likewise making up almost one-third of global GDP.
Trump has ushered in an age of personal, leader-to-leader diplomacy, showing a penchant for his meetings with world leaders turning into make-or-break moments. In this light, personal, friendly appeals from Carney and Sheinbaum may hold the best hope for the USMCA’s salvation.
