The Republican National Committee has closely aligned itself with former President Donald Trump since he won the GOP nomination in 2016, but electoral results under his leadership have been mixed.
Trump’s pick to be the new RNC co-chair, his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, said on Tuesday that the committee’s “only job” is getting Trump elected in November and that she will use “every single penny” from the RNC to do so if elected. With an increasingly Trump-centric RNC, the former president’s slate of endorsements to replace the current leadership would solidify the trend, but the record under this new focus gives five reasons to question the strategy.
RNC has bled cash in recent years
The RNC reported its worst fundraising figures since 2013 when it announced the end-of-year haul for 2023. The committee also spent more than it raised for a third consecutive year.
In 2023, the RNC raised $87.2 million, spent $93.5 million, and racked up $1.8 million in debts. It ended the year with $8 million on hand, the lowest figure since 2014.
The Democratic National Committee had a significantly better 2023, ending the year with $120 million raised, $129.5 million spent, and $319,355.42 in debts. The DNC also ended the year with a sizable $21 million on hand. Democrats have seized on their strong 2023 fundraising numbers, with a spokesperson for the committee saying the RNC was a “financial dumpster fire” under current RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel.
Aside from the poor fundraising figures for the committee, Republicans have been outspent in various key races nationwide, including in a pivotal House special election in New York on Tuesday.
Trump’s legal bills are piling up
Trump, who is likely to be the Republican presidential nominee in November, has racked up a slew of legal fees with his various legal cases. A report from Bloomberg suggests the former president is likely to drain his war chest paying for legal fees by the summer, meaning the RNC could be back on the hook if they return to supporting him financially.
During Trump’s presidency and up until he announced his current run for president in 2022, the RNC covered some of his legal fees. The committee could start picking up the tab for his legal fees again if they choose to.
Trump’s legal woes haven’t hurt him politically nearly as much as skeptics believed. Despite facing more than 90 felony counts across four different investigations, the former president has only seen his popularity go up since the first indictments were brought against him for alleged hush money payments he made as a candidate in 2016.
2024 looks favorable for Republicans — but so did 2022
The election in November appears to be a perfect storm for Republicans, with Trump leading President Joe Biden in various polls in key swing states and nationally, and the GOP appearing to be on track to win control of the Senate with a favorable map — but the last election also appeared promising until Election Day arrived.
In the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans were heavily favored to take the House of Representatives with a solid majority and make a play for taking back the Senate and several gubernatorial races. After Election Day, the GOP won a slim majority in the House, lost the Senate, and lost several key races up and down the ballot. Since the 2022 elections, the status quo has remained at the RNC.
McDaniel has defended the poor performances in 2022 by saying people don’t understand what it is the committee does. She pointed to flaws in campaigns’ messaging as a reason for the worse-than-expected results.
“We’re a turnout machine, and actually, it’s going to look like more Republicans turned out in Virginia than Democrats,” she said at the time. “We actually turned out more Republicans than Democrats in Kentucky. We’re — we’re not the messaging — that comes from the candidate, and that’s up to them.”
Candidates who heavily associate with Trump have alienated voters in key races
One of the key similarities between the candidates who either underperformed or lost key races in 2022 was their close association with Trump.
Candidates Trump championed in key elections, including Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, Tim Michels, and Mehmet Oz, failed in most of the top races Republicans needed to win. Trump’s endorsement record has hurt the GOP more than it has helped it in recent years, as his unfavorable rating with independents remains low.
Trump’s fixation on long-shot states
Another distraction for the RNC that could divert resources is Trump’s desire to make plays for states that are highly unlikely to vote Republican in the presidential election, while swing states are still up in the air.
Trump said in an interview with Breitbart in January that he wants to make a play for the Democratic stronghold New York, even entertaining the idea of renting out Madison Square Garden in Manhattan for a rally.
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“One of the other things I’m going to do — and I may be foolish in doing it — is I’m going to make a heavy play for New York, heavy play for New Jersey, heavy play for Virginia, heavy play for New Mexico, and a heavy play for a state that hasn’t been won in years, Minnesota,” Trump said.
Trump lost all five of those states, with all but Minnesota being by more than 10%, in the 2020 election. He also lost key swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania en route to his loss to Biden.
