The New Hampshire Republican primary is the second major presidential nomination contest and is traditionally the indicator of who the GOP will pick as its nominee in recent elections.
The past three competitive GOP New Hampshire presidential primary winners have gone on to win the party’s nomination, unlike how the winner of the Iowa caucuses tends to fare. Here is how the past five winners of the Republican New Hampshire presidential primary have done after the contest in the Granite State.
2016: Donald Trump
Coming off of a defeat in Iowa, where he almost came in third place, Trump won the 2016 New Hampshire primary in commanding fashion. Trump finished behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) by roughly 3% in Iowa but finished roughly 20% ahead of the field in New Hampshire.
Trump had been the front-runner in the national polls for most of the time since he entered the race in June 2015, and he continued as the front-runner, even after losing Iowa, due to his New Hampshire victory. He would go on to win most contests following the New Hampshire primary, including in South Carolina, Nevada, and most Super Tuesday contests.
Trump would become the third consecutive winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary to win the GOP nomination and would defeat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the general election. He would lose his reelection bid in 2020 to former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump is leading the polls for the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary after handily winning in the Iowa caucuses last week.
2012: Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Romney would win the 2012 New Hampshire GOP presidential primary after disappointing in the Iowa caucuses but would still face challenges in the succeeding primary contests.
The former Massachusetts governor would win the New Hampshire primary with roughly 39.3% of the vote, followed by then-Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) with 22.9%, and former Utah Gov. John Huntsman with 16.9%. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who narrowly beat Romney in the Iowa caucuses a week earlier, would finish in fourth place with 9.4% of the vote and would fade before eventually dropping out in April.
Romney would go on to lose in the South Carolina primary to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich but would prevail in most contests following the first-in-the-South primary. Romney would go on to win the Republican nomination but would lose to then-President Barack Obama in the general election.
2008: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
McCain would win the New Hampshire primary, following a poor showing at the Iowa caucuses, beating out Romney, who had been governor of neighboring state Massachusetts, by roughly 5.5%.
The Arizona senator would take the lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average shortly after his victory in the Granite State and would never look back. McCain would win the vast majority of the remaining deciding contests and would win the Republican nomination.
He would go on to lose to Obama in the general election and would continue to serve in the Senate until his death in 2018.
2000: Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)
Although McCain’s 2008 victory in the New Hampshire primary paved the way for winning the nomination, his 2000 victory in the Granite State was seen as the highest point of his candidacy.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Arizona senator defeated then-Gov. George W. Bush (R-TX) decisively by nearly 20%, after McCain had put most of his campaign’s early focus in New Hampshire. Following the showdown in the Granite State, Bush would go on to win nearly all contests and would coast to the Republican nomination.
Bush would go on to win the general election in 2000 and win reelection in 2004.
