He won’t be dropping out of the race, but it will cut into the number of voters who can choose him in November significantly. He said in his announcing press conference Friday he believes he would’ve won the election “in an honest system.” However, Kennedy could still technically win the White House with a contingent election. Here’s what that means:
If Kennedy receives at least one electoral vote and neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump reach 270 electoral votes, the presidential election will go to Congress to decide.
House congressional delegations would vote for the president, and the Senate would vote for the vice president. Both would need to come to a majority vote to elect either.
In that scenario, Republicans or Democrats could revolt against their candidate and vote for Kennedy, and he would only have to lobby a couple of hundred congressional members instead of millions of voters.
What makes the situation more than improbable is that even if this tie does happen, more likely than not, Republicans, who lead in House delegations 26-22, would choose Trump. Two states are tied, Minnesota and North Carolina.
For a tie to happen, Kennedy would need more than one electoral vote as well. He’d need at least two because a 269-269 tie gives no room for him to have a vote. That’d mean he’d either have to win two of the single-vote congressional districts in Maine or Nebraska or an entire state.
Either of those scenarios would be close to impossible but still not technically impossible.
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The most likely impact of Kennedy’s campaign will be his withdrawal from all swing states. The public perception is that it will benefit Trump because Kennedy endorsed him, but it’s no guarantee. Trump’s campaign has already come out with their own numbers of how this will benefit them
Even if it’s a swing of a point or two to Trump or Harris in these states, Kennedy can make a massive difference with his withdrawal.
