Rep. Kevin Kiley’s (R-CA) decision to break from President Donald Trump and GOP leadership on tariffs could complicate his political future as he weighs running for reelection in two different California seats after his own was eviscerated by Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s Democratic gerrymander.
Kiley has defended his decision to vote with a small group of GOP rebels against extending the House’s ban on considering legislation repealing Trump’s tariffs. He told the Washington Examiner that banning measures from coming to the floor “is a direct shift in power from the membership to leadership” and Congress needed to go in the “other direction.”
“I think that tariffs are an issue of great importance to the country,” Kiley said. “And regardless of what you think of any individual tariff or the overall policy, I think that the United States Congress should at the very least be discussing and debating these matters. So I don’t see the harm in that.”
The vote dealt a blow to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and the White House by opening the door for Congress to pass legislation rebuking Trump’s agenda. While any measure repealing Trump’s tariffs will likely be vetoed, it still puts lawmakers on record as opposing the president ahead of the midterm elections.
That’s exactly what happened when Kiley and five other House Republicans voted with Democrats to terminate Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The move came as Trump was engaged in a public back-and-forth with Canada over control of the Gordie Howe Bridge connecting Michigan with Ontario.
Ahead of the vote, Trump pledged there would be a price to pay for defecting lawmakers.
“Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Kiley, whose district split into six factions because of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s gerrymander, has yet to announce what seat he will contest this year. He has until March 4 to decide between California’s newly drawn 5th and 6th congressional districts — each seat is considered an uphill battle.
“None of us have seats because the map has been totally obliterated and there’s a new map,” Kiley said. “So there aren’t any incumbents, per se, in the sense that there are incumbents attached to a particular district.”
Jeff Le, who served as a deputy Cabinet secretary to former Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown, told the Washington Examiner there is a reason why Kiley hasn’t made a decision. He said that the 41-year-old Kiley would be a “heavy underdog” in the 6th district but that 69-year-old Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) is Trump’s clear pick for the 5th district, which is rated solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report.
“McClintock’s track record is pretty clear going to be right of [Kiley], so in the world where he’s voting the way he’s voting for example, on tariffs, it could potentially fit an opportunity in a primary system that’s open,” Le said.
California has a “top two” primary system that allows all candidates to appear on the same primary ballot, meaning only the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. This could allow Kiley to face off against McClintock in a general election.
While McClintock has not had serious challengers since his first campaign, Le said he starts off as the “heavy favorite” against Kiley.
The 6th district, meanwhile, is considered a “solid” Democratic seat by the Cook Political Report.
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Last year, California Democrats, led by Newsom, pushed through a ballot initiative suspending maps drawn by the state’s citizen redistricting commission until 2030 and imposing a new one crafted specifically to target Republicans like Kiley.
With no district locked down and Trump openly warning of political consequences for tariff defectors, Kiley will spend the coming months fighting to preserve his political future in Washington, even as he remains uncertain which district he will ultimately call home.
