Former New York Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin said his historically strong blue state of New York is up for grabs for presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump in the general election.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s handling of Trump’s criminal hush money case is helping Trump in New York City, according to Zeldin. By the former congressman’s calculations, Trump could win the state of New York if he is popular enough in the city.
From 2015 until 2023, Zeldin represented the 1st Congressional District of New York, which encompasses much of the North Shore of Long Island and the Hamptons. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) won the district after Zeldin ran an unsuccessful campaign for governor against Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
“So when I ran in 2022, what I was saying was if I get less than 30% in New York City, I can’t win; if I get more than 35% in New York City, it becomes difficult to lose,” Zeldin said on Fox News on Thursday.
He said Trump could use this math to bolster support in New York City while he is on trial.
“President Trump can get inside of all these different communities over the course of the next several weeks and get his support up,” Zeldin said. “The Asian community, the Hispanic community, the black community, and others are only moving towards him.”
Trump has tried to use the various criminal cases against him to appeal to black voters.
“I think that’s why the black people are so much on my side now,” Trump said at a February campaign event in South Carolina. “Because they see what’s happening to me happens to them.”
A January poll showed that 83% of black voters view the legal claims against Trump as appropriate. The same poll found that 12% of black voters would support Trump in an election. Additionally, independent candidates, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., could make a big impact in November, with many pundits seeing RFK as more likely to take votes away from President Joe Biden than Trump.
“One additional point to add is that RFK Jr. is on the ballot,” Zeldin said. “When I ran in 2022, it was a head-to-head battle with Kathy Hochul. In 2024, with a Kennedy on the ballot as well, President Trump doesn’t even have to get to 30% in order to put New York state in play.”
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The most recent poll for a race between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, and other independent candidates has Trump winning, with 44% of people who were polled supporting Trump, 40% supporting Biden, and 8% supporting Kennedy. When the poll only includes Biden and Trump, Trump still pulls ahead as the winner 46% to 43%.
In 2016, Trump lost his home state of New York by 1,736,590 votes. In 2020, he lost the state by a larger margin of 1,992,889 votes.
