FLINT, Michigan — Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are revving up their campaigns in Michigan as the birthplace of the automobile could very well decide who rolls into the White House.
Trump will rally in Macomb County on Friday in an appeal to blue-collar and union workers who have been shifting to the Republican Party since the billionaire reality TV star burst on the political scene in 2015.
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Harris will look to mobilize college voters on Sunday in East Lansing, home to Michigan State University. And her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), on Friday will campaign in Flint, the storied city that launched General Motors.
Trump’s campaign is projecting confidence he’s in a far better place than four years ago when President Joe Biden flipped the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Trump’s campaign put out a memo Thursday titled “President Trump is on the Verge.”
The campaign is focused on persuading the few remaining undecided voters and turning out its base because “the bulk of President Trump’s voters will vote on Election Day,” the campaign memo said.
In the meantime, Harris’s campaign is seeking to shore up support with black voters, in particular men.
“What you’re seeing with the Harris-Walz campaign is a consistent presence in the state of Michigan, across different communities,” Michigan Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II said Thursday afternoon during a get-out-the-vote event targeting black men in Flint. “In the city of Flint, Gov. Walz will be here making three stops tomorrow. I was with the Vice President in Ann Arbor a couple days ago. I was with her in Kalamazoo a few days before that, so both the campaigns are paying attention to say to Michigan, and that’s a good thing.”
Republicans, however, aren’t ceding the state. The former president will hold a rally in Warren, Michigan, Friday late afternoon, while running mate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) will stump in Portage, Michigan, earlier that day. Trump plans to end the campaign cycle with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he previously closed out his 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
Gilchrist dismissed the Trump stop when asked by the Washington Examiner. “That suggests that he’s superstitious,” he said.
Michigan is a key piece of the blue wall, but the race is tight
Of the three blue wall states, Harris is polling best in Michigan, according to RealClearPolitics’s poll average of the battlegrounds.
The vice president currently has less than a 1-point lead over Trump, 48% to 47.6%, while in Wisconsin her lead is narrower, 48.3% to 48.1%, and in Pennsylvania Trump bests Harris 48.2% to 47.6%.
Another poll from the Washington Post shows Trump leading Harris 47% to 45% among registered voters and Harris leading Trump 47% to 46% among likely voters. But poll results are within the margin of error.
Recent CNN polls conducted by SSRS showed Harris leading Trump 48% to 43% among likely voters.
With the race so closely contested, Trump will need to win over Grand Traverse, Saginaw, and Muskegon Counties for his best bath to flip Michigan red.
Harris and Trump battle over several influential constituencies
Harris’s biggest liability in Michigan as she seeks to recreate the big tent coalition is the sizable Arab and Muslim American population whose fury over the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war could throw the race to Trump. Earlier this year, organizers spurred more than 101,000 voters in the state to vote uncommitted during the Democratic primary.
Trump has capitalized on the disarray of the Democratic side by touting the endorsements of Dearborn Heights Mayor Bill Bazzi and Hamtramck, Michigan Mayor Amer Ghalib as well as the endorsements of Arab and Muslim American leaders at his rally in Novi, Michigan, on Saturday.
But Harris has countered with the endorsements of deputy Wayne County Executive Assad I. Turfe, the highest-ranking Arab American official and three Hamtramck Muslim councilmen defied their mayor’s support of Trump to back Harris.
Michigan’s strong labor unions are another key group that could decide which candidate wins the state. The influential United Auto Workers endorsed Harris’s bid for the presidency during the summer, but the vice president must still work to earn UAW members’ votes in Michigan.
Along with campaigning with UAW President Shawn Fain, Harris and Walz have seized upon Trump’s threats against the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the loss of thousands of manufacturing jobs under Trump, as one effort to win the labor vote in Michigan.
Trump’s overtures to the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union by giving President Sean O’Brien a speaking slot at the Republican National Convention led to a victory when the union did not endorse either candidate this cycle after endorsing Biden in 2020. The International Association of Firefighters also did not endorse this cycle.
The former president has made inroads with black male voters as he hopes to dent the Democratic coalition, forcing the Harris campaign to step up its outreach over the past month. Yet, the black men who spoke with the Washington Examiner at the GOTV event in Flint dismissed concerns that Trump could win a record number of their votes this cycle.
“Every black man that I know is voting for her,” said George Louis, a 32-year-old sound production company employee, at the Flint event. “Because we support our own we want to see black women rise too.”
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Joshua Cook, a 25-year-old Flint entrepreneur, urged the roughly 20 black men gathered Thursday to do their research on both candidates, stressing that they don’t simply follow opinions on social media websites such as TikTok.
“I believe we’re going to show up and show out,” Cook told the Washington Examiner about black men’s voting efforts for Harris. “Like I said, I’m working close with the campaign. I feel like I’m getting through to people I need to get through to.”
