President-elect Donald Trump is expected to sweep all seven swing states in this year’s election — cinching his victory as the 47th president. He had a strong showing all over the country, but the results from swing counties were especially impressive given the high stakes.
While Trump lost to Vice President Kamala Harris in many of the counties home to city and suburban voters, he did so by much smaller margins compared to the 2020 presidential race. Meanwhile, Trump gained more voters in rural regions.
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In 520 suburban counties, Trump saw an average increase of 4.4 points, and in 99 urban counties, Trump saw a 5.8-point bump. Of the 18 counties the Washington Examiner had listed as swing counties, Trump triumphed in 12 of them.
Votes are still being tallied in Maricopa County, but as of Saturday morning, Arizona’s most populated county and home to the Democratic city of Phoenix, the county swung red. With 82% of the votes counted, president-elected Donald Trump holds a 4.6% lead over Kamala Harris. So far, Trump has captured 51.8% of voters, and Harris has captured 47.2%.
Trump’s win came despite challenges as voters faced an abortion measures amendment, which Democrats were hoping would motivate more liberal voters than normal. However, Trump sailed through, bringing along with him Rep. Dave Schweikert (R-AZ), who won his bid for reelection in his district which encompasses Maricopa County. Labeled a Republican toss-up by Cook Political Report, Schweikert captured 52.3% of the votes.
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Maricopa is a significant county since 62% of Arizona residents live within it. Essentially, these voters are a major deciding factoring of which candidate will win Arizona’s electoral votes.
Historically, Maricopa county swings in favor of Republicans. In the four presidential elections between 2000 and 2012, Republicans have turned the county red with between 53% and 57% of the vote. In 2016, Trump won the county, but only with 47.6% of the vote. Drop in support for the Republican nominee could be the result of from female and Latino voters displeased with his campaign message.
And in 2020, President Joe Biden won the county with 50% of the vote.
While Trump’s 2024 vote share in the county is not at the same level as previous Republican nominees, he did make ground with Hispanic voters who consist of 31% of the population in Maricopa. In this election, Trump’s campaign saw a 13.3-point increase with Hispanic majority counties.
Other swing state cities and suburbs with a high Hispanic population show a similar dip in voter support for Harris than compared to President Joe Biden in 2020.
Lehigh Valley County, Pennsylvania, is home to 377,000 people, and it is home to Allentown — the third largest city in the state. And nearly half of Allentown residents are Hispanic.
Harris won the county with 50.8% of the vote, with Trump trailing behind at 48%. Meanwhile, Biden won the county with 53% of the vote, with Trump at 46%.
But Trump also saw a surge in support from black voters, gaining 2.7 points in black majority counties.
Trump’s gain with black voters in cities like Detroit — part of Wayne County, Michigan — was monumental. Trump saw a 9.1-point increase in Motor City voters. Harris still carried Wayne County by 62% to 34%, but compared to Biden in 2024, she lost 6% of voters.
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But what’s notable is the voters who didn’t show up. Voter turnout in Wayne County reached 47% in this year’s election. Its previous low was set at 49% in 2016.
But competitive counties that just consist of the suburbs also flipped for Trump. Saginaw County, Michigan — a hub for the global automotive industry — flipped red for Trump with 51% of the vote. He lost to Biden there in 2020 by 303 votes.
