Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a dead-heat race for the White House at the end of the presidential and running mate debates with less than a month to go.
While Trump declined an additional debate with Harris, his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), took on Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) in New York City last week and had a strong performance.
The fallout from Walz’s uneven debate has seen the Democratic ticket ramp up media appearances. While most experts don’t expect the vice presidential debate to move many voters, both Trump’s and Harris’s campaigns are awaiting a dreaded “October surprise” that could disrupt the race.
Harris’s campaign did receive unwelcome news when the International Association of Fire Fighters declined to endorse her last week, becoming the second major union to do so. The union chose to not endorse any candidate, citing feedback from members.
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Meanwhile, the unsealed court filing containing special counsel Jack Smith‘s 165-page report into Trump’s actions surrounding the Jan. 6 Capitol attack was an unwelcome announcement for the Trump campaign.
Trump and Harris’s campaign schedules were also upended by Hurricane Helene, a category 4 storm that ravaged Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida, with both candidates visiting affected areas in the days after the hurricane.
With time running out before the election, the Washington Examiner reranked the battleground states according to which would be the hardest for the vice president to win.
1. Georgia
Harris’s path to winning the Peach State has become increasingly complicated as Trump heavily campaigns in the state and has worked on rebuilding his relationship with popular Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA).
Trump visited Georgia twice last week in response to Hurricane Helene’s damage. The second appearance in the state marked the first time since 2020 that he and Kemp were seen together.
After falling out over Kemp resisting Trump’s efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 results, Trump endorsed a primary challenger against the governor during the 2022 midterm elections and in August slammed Kemp as “disloyal” and attacked his wife, Marty.
However, the feud between the two men appears to have thawed after they shook hands last week and worked to help Georgians recover. The defrosting of the relationship spells trouble for Harris, who is trailing Trump in the state by 1.5 points, according to a RealClearPolitics poll average.
Still, Democratic National Committee chairman Jaime Harrison claims Harris has the ground game infrastructure to win come November. The Peach State flipped blue in 2020 when President Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win the state since President Bill Clinton in 1992.
2. Pennsylvania
The Keystone State remains the crown jewel of the battlegrounds for Harris, with it being ranked the toughest battleground state for Harris to win the last time the scorecard was published. However, the state has been pushed down to second place as the vice president maintains her narrow lead in the state.
A recent Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group showed Harris leading Trump by 49% to 47% in a hypothetical poll that includes third-party candidates and 50% to 49% in a head-to-head matchup.
A New York Times polling average shows Harris with a 1-point lead, 49% to 48%, while RealClearPolitics average in the state shows the two candidates are tied.
If Harris can win Pennsylvania it is almost certain that she will win the White House. The importance of the state appears to not be lost on Harris, who unveiled her economic agenda in the state late last month.
Former President Barack Obama, perhaps the most popular Democratic leader aside from his wife, Michelle, is also set to stump for Harris in Pittsburgh this week after Trump had a triumphant return to Butler, Pennsylvania more than two months after a failed assassination attempt.
3. Arizona
Democratic enthusiasm over Harris replacing Biden was expected to boost her campaign in the Sun Belt battlegrounds where the president was struggling the most.
But more than two months since Harris succeeded Biden, she’s still trailing Trump in Arizona. A FiveThirtyEight poll average shows Trump besting Harris 48.2% to 46.6%.
A September poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed Trump’s lead is even higher at 50% to 45% a reverse from their August poll which showed Harris at the time leading Trump by 5 points.
Arizona is the lone border state among the seven battleground states. Trump has heavily excoriated Harris over immigration as he makes his pitch to voters in the state, seeking to pin the blame for the border crisis on both her and Biden. To counteract Trump’s attacks, the vice president headed to Douglas, Arizona, in late September where she vowed to “do more to secure our border, to reduce illegal border crossings.”
Harris and Walz will campaign in the state this week as early voting begins, with the governor scheduled for a Wednesday visit and the vice president visiting on Friday.
4. North Carolina
The Tarheel State should have likely been one of the hardest battlegrounds for Harris given that the last time it voted for a Democratic president was in 2008 for Obama.
But scandal from North Carolina Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s sexual behavior before entering politics could drag down Trump.
The Cook Political Report survey shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 46% in a hypothetical matchup with third-party candidates, a reverse from when the survey was conducted in May and Trump was leading by 8 points.
In a head-to-head matchup, the two candidates remain tied at 49%. Trump led in polling by 7 points in May.
However, other polls show Trump leading Harris with the New York Times-Siena College showing Trump beating Harris 49% to 47%.
5. Michigan
The Wolverine State was ranked the 7th hardest battleground for Harris to win during the last scoreboard, but recent developments have worked against the vice president.
Harris will have to contend with Arab Americans angry over Israel’s battle against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could cost her votes if they sit the election out or vote third-party. The vice president met with Arab American leaders while she campaigned in Flint, Michigan last week as she courts their votes ahead of November.
But her campaign was dealt a blow when the Abandon Harris effort announced on Monday that it was throwing its support behind Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The organization, which was formerly called the Abandon Biden campaign, was one of a few efforts that pushed primary voters in Michigan and other crucial battleground states to cast their vote as uncommitted earlier this year.
The organization’s choice to back Stein is likely to hurt Harris, as more than 100,000 Michiganders voted uncommitted in the state primary.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who is running for the open Senate seat in the state, warned donors that the vice president is “underwater” in Michigan, according to a report from Axios.
“I’m not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan,” Slotkin said. “We have her underwater in our polling.”
Still, the Cook Political Report survey shows Harris leading Trump 49% to 46%, while FiveThirtyEight’s poll average in the state shows Harris leading 47.9% to 46.4%. But RealClearPolitics’s poll average showed Harris with a narrow lead at only 0.7%.
6. Wisconsin
Wisconsin has consistently remained in Harris’s favor according to most polls. Trump, sensing Harris’s momentum, visited the state on Sunday for the fourth time in roughly one week.
“They say that Wisconsin is probably the toughest of the swing states to win,” Trump said while in Juneau. “I don’t think so.”
Polls, however, suggest that Trump will need to work to defeat Harris in Wisconsin. According to the New York Times average Harris leads, 50% to 48%.
A recent Marquette Law School survey of Wisconsin showed Harris’s lead improving against Trump, 52% to 48%, in a head-to-head matchup and 48% to 44% when third-party candidates are included.
Harris also visited Ripon, Wisconsin, which bills itself as GOP’s birthplace in 1854 (although Jackson, Michigan claims a similar title), where she campaigned with former Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney as she courted disaffected Republicans ahead of the election.
“I have never voted for a Democrat. But this year, I am proudly casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris,” said Cheney, whose father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, is also supporting Harris.
7. Nevada
This is the first scorecard where Nevada is ranked as the seventh hardest battleground for Harris, a sharp contrast from Arizona, the other Western swing state that will determine the next president.
In Harris’s favor is that neither Stein nor Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will appear on the state’s ballot. The Cook Political Report previously changed Nevada from a “Lean Republican” rating to a “toss-up.”
Nevada is also the most diverse state out of all the battlegrounds, which could help the vice president, who is biracial. Her mother is Indian, while her father is Jamaican.
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Harris also has the backing of the influential Culinary Workers Union Local 226 and the last time the state voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 2004 for President George W. Bush.
Harris leads Trump, 48.9% to 46.9%, according to the Decision Desk HQ and the Hill’s polling average of the Silver State, while the RealClearPolitics poll average has her leading 48.6% to 47.5%.
