The question now becomes whether Harris’s well-executed plan of irritating Trump and joining with the moderators and Trump himself to draw attention to his negatives was what the voters she most needs really wanted.
Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis say that, according to their data from the top seven battleground states, the answer is no. “We found that despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and [the] media to portray the debate as some kind of overwhelming win for her, voters did not see it this way as support for her remained flat,” they wrote in a memo released on Thursday. “The only change we saw was a 2-point bump for President Trump in both ballot configurations.”
“In our post-debate data, President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 2-points, 48% – 46%, and in the head-to-head ballot, he is up 3-points, 50% – 47%,” Fabrizio and Tunis continued. “Clearly, target state voters were not impressed by Kamala Harris’ empty platitudes and while the media would have people believe she is cruising to victory, this couldn’t be farther from the truth.” Their predebate numbers, they said, showed the two candidates tied.
You would perhaps expect this take from the Trump campaign. More independent numbers are needed, as well as more time for the voters to digest the debate. But focus groups of undecided voters convened by the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Reuters found them unmoved, even if they agreed that Harris succeeded in rattling Trump.
“She baited him and he fell for it. That was disappointing,” a 47-year-old unemployed independent woman told the Wall Street Journal. “But as far as Kamala is concerned, I didn’t see a lot of policy. She seemed to dodge some of the major questions or go back to rebutting whatever Trump just said.” This Arizona voter had supported independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. but was now reluctantly leaning toward Trump.
The disconnect might well be that what Harris accomplished in the debate — zinging Trump, avenging Biden’s candidacy-ending loss, defending abortion — did more to excite voters already committed to her, while exasperating Republicans who wish the former president was more disciplined, than it did to attract angry and disaffected undecideds.
Exciting the Democratic base, demoralizing Republicans, and getting positive post-debate headlines aren’t bad things for a candidate locked in a close race. The RealClearPolitics national polling average has Harris up by 1.5 points. But it might not be the knockout blow she seeks.
Predebate polling suggested that voters were looking for additional information about Harris much more than Trump, who at this point is a familiar figure whose foibles are well worn.
It’s possible that the voters Harris needed to convince won’t be reached by the same kind of debate moments that titillate partisan Democrats and political professionals of all stripes.
“The latest New York Times/Siena poll has Harris trailing Trump among working-class (noncollege) voters by 17 points,” writes Ruy Teixeira, a longtime Democratic political scientist and commentator now affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute. “That’s identical to Biden’s working-class deficit in the last NYT poll before he dropped out and way worse than Biden’s deficit among these voters in 2020 — a mere 4 points. More detailed NYT results reveal that Harris, relative to Biden in 2020, is doing 10 points worse among white working-class voters and 18 points worse among nonwhite working-class voters.”
“The simple message from focus groups who watched this debate was that your performance was not fatal,” influential conservative radio talk show host Erick Erickson wrote in an open letter to Trump. “You can still win this race. All you need to do is focus on why Kamala Harris has not done what she claims she will.”
That was Trump’s message in his closing statement. But he meandered for most of the rest of the bout.
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Now Trump is ruling out a third debate, while Harris is clamoring for another. That would seem like an acknowledgment from both candidates that what happened Tuesday night worked for Harris. Trump naturally disagrees, posting on social media, “When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A REMATCH.’”
Harris did what she set out to do at the debate. Whether it was the right thing to do remains to be seen.
