Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, according to three new polls.
Three new Marist Institute surveys found Trump up by one point in Arizona and Georgia while tied with the Democrat in North Carolina. The demographic breakdowns of each poll show weaknesses for both candidates among traditional voting blocs.
North Carolina
Trump and Harris were found to have been tied in North Carolina among likely voters, each with 49% of the vote. They’re also tied among independents, with 48% of the vote each. This is an underperformance from Harris, as President Joe Biden won independents by four points in 2020, while Trump won the state.
Harris is also underperforming among black likely voters, winning 86% compared to Biden’s 92%. She has slightly more of the white vote than Biden did, though Trump still leads 59% to 40%.
One surprise result is Harris claiming the Silent/Greatest Generation vote, a bloc usually won by Republicans, winning 52% of the vote compared to Trump’s 43%. In comparison, Trump won the same bloc by 11 points in the Arizona poll, while trailing by three points in the Georgia poll.
The poll surveyed 1,348 North Carolina likely voters from Sept. 19-24, with a +/- 3.7% margin of error.
Arizona
Among likely voters, Trump holds a narrow lead with 50% compared to Harris’s 49%. Harris leads Trump among independents 51% to 47%.
Arizona is much less polarized along demographic lines than Georgia or North Carolina — Trump beats Harris among white voters by just three points, 51% to 48%, while Trump leads Harris among the large Latino voting bloc 51% to 49%.
This is a monumental change from 2020 when Biden carried the Latino vote by 24 points.
The Marist Insitute polled 1,264 voters from Sept. 19 through 24, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8%
Georgia
Trump held a narrow lead over Harris among likely voters, claiming 50% of the vote compared to Harris’s 49%. Among independent voters likely to vote, Harris leads Trump by five points.
Trump holds a massive lead over Harris in the state among white voters, 66% to 34%, while Harris holds a likewise major lead among black voters, 86% to 13%.
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The gender balance is similarly polarized, with men going for Trump 56% to 42% and women going for Harris 54% to 44%.
The poll surveyed 1,220 Georgia likely voters from Sept. 19 through 24 with a +/- 3.9% margin of error.
