President-elect Donald Trump has big plans for his first 100 days in office. But with his Cabinet recruitment siphoning off key votes in the House and outstanding races showing tight margins, Republicans must deal with a dangerously slim majority that could complicate his ambitious agenda.
The House margin as of Tuesday is 219-213 in Republicans’ favor with three races yet to be called. In those remaining races, Republicans have slim leads for two seats while a Democrat is leading in the other. If those numbers hold, it will give Republicans a 221-214 majority — just one seat fewer than the margin they worked with over the last two years.
However, those numbers will not hold for long. Republicans are expected to start the year with at least three vacancies in the seats held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned earlier this month, and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL), who will join the Trump administration.
Those vacancies would leave the House makeup at 218-214, giving Republicans only a one-seat majority — raising concerns among members about how much of Trump’s agenda they’ll be able to accomplish in the first 100 days.
“It does impact [us] when we have a one-seat margin at that point,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) told the Washington Examiner. But, he added, “I trust Speaker [Mike] Johnson to put a smart, passable agenda forward.”
House leaders have been in conversations with Trump for nearly a year to discuss policy proposals and craft an agenda for when they secured the White House and both chambers of Congress. Much of those plans will focus on an array of policy issues related to the border, energy costs, food affordability, and more.
But those plans may be interrupted by a daunting list of must-pass spending bills the House must take up early next year that could cut into Trump’s big plans.
Chief on that list is a deal to fund the government for the remainder of fiscal 2025. Congressional leaders are expected to pass a stopgap spending bill when they return in December to punt the funding deadline into early next year. It is not clear when that deadline will be set, but some lawmakers involved with talks say it could land in mid-March.
That would put negotiations smack dab in the middle of Trump’s 100-day agenda. And even with Republicans’ majority in the past, spending fights have not been without internal disagreements — raising questions about whether the one-seat margin could make matters more difficult.
“Obviously, the vacancies will tighten an already slim majority, but we have a House majority that understands the critical importance of Trump’s first 100 days and delivering positive outcomes for the American people, like securing our border and unleashing the American economy,” Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) told the Washington Examiner. “So yes, we may debate specifics, but at the end of the day, we will be outcome- and solution-driven, which happens to align with Trump’s vision for restoring America.”
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Other Republicans similarly brushed off concerns that their slim majority could hinder Trump’s agenda from getting through, arguing GOP lawmakers are in agreement on the president-elect’s plans.
“If you look at the big agenda items Trump’s laid out, like deportation, completing the wall, drilling, all the regulations he’s going to put in place — we’re in agreement on that,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) told the Washington Examiner. “I don’t think you will have very little, if any, disagreement that stops the major things where you normally have [it].”
