Democrats are worried the polls may be underestimating former President Donald Trump‘s support, which they did in 2016 and 2020, as he takes the lead in three of the key Sun Belt states, according to a new poll.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona 50%-45%, Georgia 49%-45%, and North Carolina 49%-47%.
Trump’s leads in Arizona and North Carolina are reversals from the last polls in those states from the pollster in August, which showed Harris leading Trump by five points, 50%- 45%, in Arizona and by two points, 49%- 47%, in North Carolina. Since the last poll, Trump has maintained a 4% lead in the Peach State.
The former president also maintains leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average for all three states, with North Carolina being his smallest lead, 47.8%-47.4%. In the national polling average, Harris leads Trump, 49.4%-47.2%.
Trump won Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, in 2016 en route to the presidency, but lost Arizona and Georgia in 2020, in a losing reelection bid. North Carolina has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate twice since 1968 — in 1976 and 2008.
The positive numbers for Trump also come as Democrats are reportedly worried that polling may be underestimating the former president, as was seen in 2016 and 2020. Multiple Democrats have expressed concerns that there may be another undercount of Trump’s support in battleground states, according to a report from the Hill.
“Polling has really been seriously damaged since 2016. And that’s one of the truths, is that Trump is going to be tough in Pennsylvania, and that’s absolutely the truth,” Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) told the outlet.
Polling throughout the 2016 election showed former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton leading, and many didn’t take Trump’s bid seriously. After the election, politicos and analysts admitted their failures in relying on poll numbers that didn’t take into account unlikely voters, or non-college educated white men.
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Harris’s 2.2% lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average over Trump is smaller than Clinton’s 3% lead at this time in 2016 and President Joe Biden’s 7.1% lead at this time in 2020. Trump also holds stronger leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, than at this time in 2020.
With Trump’s stronger polling this year, compared to previous elections, it appears to be his best chance to win the popular vote, something he failed to do in his victorious 2016 campaign.
