WARREN, Michigan — Former President Donald Trump appeared to be tamping down his campaign’s overconfidence that he will win the election during a Friday rally at Macomb Community College in Warren, Michigan, where he cautioned against reading the tea leaves of preelection data.
“You gotta vote. Don’t believe the polls that we’re way up,” Trump admonished the crowd. “One gentleman — a great pollster, they say — he said we have a 97% chance of winning. I said, don’t believe it. Don’t believe it. I think he’s a Democrat because nothing matters except what happens on Tuesday when you think of it.”
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“So just pretend that we’re 1 point down. We’re not; we’re up,” Trump continued at the rally aimed at winning over union voters in Macomb County.
The former president’s warning not to get complacent is a notable difference from his campaign pollster’s recent memo touting his chances of winning.
“President Trump’s position nationally and in every single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was 4 years ago,” wrote Tony Fabrizio citing RealClearPolitics data. “In fact, President Trump holds the lead in 5 of the 7 Battleground States that account for over 270 Electoral Votes.”
RealClearPolitics’s poll average of the battleground states shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1 point, 48.5% to 47.5%. But it appears the campaign is attempting to avert any signs of hubris in the final days of the election cycle.
“I point this out NOT to stoke overconfidence or complacency, but to illustrate just how close
this election is and that victory is within our reach,” Fabrizio added.
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Voters who spoke to the Washington Examiner mostly signaled that they accept Trump’s confidence he can win but cited Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2016 as a reason why Trump is urging Republicans not to rely on polls. Clinton was polling about 5 points ahead of Trump in Michigan just days before the 2016 election and then lost the state.
“If people get overconfident, people won’t go out and vote. They’ll say, ‘Well, we got it in the bag,’” said Roque Diegel, a 59-year-old retiree from Harrison Township. “Look what happened to Hillary Clinton. I remember watching her during the election day, and then all the Clinton people were all jumping up and down and happy. And then the numbers started coming in, and they’re looking at the screen … and the next thing you know, no balloons are dropping.”
Still, all voters remained confident Trump will win Michigan, one of the blue wall battleground states that will help decide the next president.
“I think he’s a confident guy. That’s who he is. Trump’s always been confident,” said Andrew W., a 29-year-old security employee from Dearborn who declined to give his last name. “I think he’s going to win Michigan. We’re going to turn the state red.”
Trump’s warning of overconfidence is also a change in tone from a week ago when he boasted he’s “leading by a lot” in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even states that are typically never in play.
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At the Warren rally, Trump urged union autoworkers, some of whom took to the stage, that his campaign would better help their industry compared to the Harris campaign. But the national United Auto Workers union has endorsed the vice president and President Shawn Fain was participating in a get-out-the-vote rally with Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Debbie Dingell (D-MI), and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) in nearby Detroit at the same time as the Trump rally.
Trump called Fain “that poor stupid fool that runs the union” as he denigrated electric vehicle mandates as a threat to union auto workers.
Trump supporters at the rally remained adamant that union voters would tilt Republican.
“Everyone loves the environment, I love the environment, but the Democrats got really radical with going against oil and gas and gas-powered cars that just started the rift,” said Craig Dailey, a 52-year-old sales employee from Grosse Pointe Park. “There’s clarity on the Republican side.”
Dailey cited the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union not endorsing Trump or Harris as an example of why labor will vote in large numbers for the GOP.
Even voters who traveled from out of state also believed that Trump would win the Wolverine but they too cautioned against the GOP getting too confident.
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Sabina T, a 38-year-old Air Force retiree who declined to give her last name, drove one and a half hours from Toledo, Ohio to hear Trump speak. “We’ve had that issue many times over the years,” Sabina said about the GOP feeling jubilant before an election. “Where I don’t feel well, I’m sick, oh, we’re behind or we’re ahead, so I don’t need to go vote. So it’s been very common.”
Amy Chauvette, a 60-year-old UPS retiree from Sylvania, Ohio, also drove more than an hour to hear Trump speak in Warren but she supported his confidence in winning Michigan. “That’s one of the wonderful things about Donald J. Trump, I believe, is his confidence,” Chauvette said.
