As the calendar turns to 2025, attention turns toward Virginia, one of the few states with off-year elections, as well as the popular Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).
Republican Youngkin recently waved off questions about joining President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet, highlighting his plans to serve out the remainder of his term which ends in January 2026.
“[Trump] knows that I am committed and will continue to serve as governor through my whole term and that is so important,” Youngkin said in an interview with Norfolk TV station WVEC.
“I am only hired for one term, one four years, and when I spoke to him about this, he was very supportive of my finishing the job that I’ve committed to and I am committed to.”
But because he is term limited by Virginia’s constitution, questions are inevitably being raised about what could be next for the 74th governor of the commonwealth.
There’s been speculation that Youngkin could be interested in joining Trump’s cabinet once his term is up, or he could be persuaded to run for Senate in 2026 and challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA). He has also already been mentioned in way-too-early sweepstakes for the Republican nomination in 2028.
“The sky is the limit for Glenn Youngkin,” said Brian Kirwin, a Republican operative in the state. “He won Virginia when people were very seriously putting Virginia in the blue column. There are quite a few whispers that there might be a U.S. Senate seat in his future.”
Youngkin, the leader of a purple state, is putting all his energy toward closing out his term as governor strongly, keenly aware that his accomplishments in the next year could be a launching pad for his political future, according to those close to him.
Youngkin’s allies say his legacy will determine his political future
The former private-equity mogul’s allies continue to stress that he has made no decisions about his political future.
“He is focused on his job as governor, he has one year left, so he’s going to lean in to doing the best job that he can to close out his term strong,” said Justin Discigil, spokesman for Youngkin’s political action committee, Spirit of Virginia.
Vice President Kamala Harris managed to keep Virginia in the Democratic column but was able to do so by a 5.6 point margin, a dramatic turn in a state that went blue by 10 points in 2020.
With major races coming up in 2025 for the Virginia House of Delegates, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, there are already signs that the General Assembly under Democratic control, could be more willing to work with Youngkin after seeing the results of the 2024 election and the Commonwealth’s shift to the right.
Democrats were united against most of the tax changes proposed by Youngkin this past year, but already it appears they are looking for ways to turn the party’s luck around in the future.
“I think the economy was a huge issue; I think inflation is real,” said Virginia House Speaker Don Scott (D-VA), addressing reporters near the Capitol in Richmond last week.
“We have a billion-dollar surplus, and I think there’s some ways to use those resources and I think there’s a way to do a tax cut for every day, hardworking families,” he said, speaking to Virginia Public Radio.
Virginians continue to be overtaxed. I have already signed $5 billion of tax relief into law. Lower taxes, more jobs, 3 years of surpluses…it works. To keep our rip-roaring economy growing and give Virginians relief from inflation and high cost of living, I will again propose…
— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) November 7, 2024
Youngkin appeared to already be taking a victory lap, praising Scott’s comments and vowing that he will “again propose additional tax relief in December” in a post on social media last week.
“To keep our rip-roaring economy growing and give Virginians relief from inflation and high cost of living, I will again propose additional tax relief in December,” Youngkin wrote. “I am glad that Speaker Scott finally understands this.
Youngkin’s soaring popularity in the Old Dominion
Youngkin’s popularity in Virginia has surged to 59 percent, according to the most recent Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College survey of Virginia likely voters.
He has constantly been touted as a possible future White House contender since the moment in 2021 when he flipped Virginia from blue to red, besting former Gov. Terry McAuliffe by two points. His sensible campaigning on education, particularly what was being taught in Virginia schools, proved to be a decisive issue in the closing stages of the race.
Days before this November’s general election, Youngkin welcomed Trump back to the commonwealth during a rally in Salem, one of Virginia’s reddest corners. Youngkin’s 20-minute speech praised the now-incoming president’s strength, but also focused on his own record and the moment he burst onto the political scene in 2021 as a new type of Republican, the first to win statewide since 2009.
“My friends in Virginia, we know how to win elections. They told me back in 2021 no Republican can win statewide in Virginia and we stood up and said ‘no, we’re going to win,’ and we won,” Youngkin declared, speaking to supporters ahead of Trump’s speech, clad in his trademark red vest.
Youngkin and his allies continue to highlight recent rankings from CNBC that awarded Virginia as the nation’s top state for business with the best public education system and solid infrastructure.
“The record that Gov. Youngkin has advanced in Virginia has made Virginia the best state in America for business — there’s been more jobs created under his leadership than any other time in the history of the Commonwealth,” Discigil said, speaking to the Washington Examiner on Friday.
“Virginia has the top rated education system in the entire country under his leadership. That is the record that he has advanced so far as governor, and that is the record that he’s going to continue to advance going into his last year,” he added.
During his first two years in office, Youngkin was able to work with a friendly GOP-controlled House of Delegates and enjoyed a significant amount of federal pandemic relief funding. However, his priorities seemed to slip away after he mounted a costly-all-out effort to win Republican control of the General Assembly which resulted in Democrats holding the Senate and flipping the House last year. Those results seemed to stall Youngkin’s momentum amid speculation he may mount a bid for the top of the 2024 Republican ticket.
The Republican chief executive had hoped to lure the Washington Wizards NBA team and Washington Capitals NHL team to Alexandria from Washington, D.C., an opportunity the governor himself had called “the single largest economic development deal in Virginia’s history.” The plan failed, however, after the General Assembly did not sign off on the $2 billion project. His administration also failed to get the Biden administration on board with relocating the new FBI headquarters to Virginia, with Maryland winning instead.
However, those who have worked with the governor characterize his legacy as one of bipartisan accomplishment, pointing to his role in passing tax cuts and landing the country’s only Lego precision-manufacturing facility south of Richmond.
“He can go into any room, he can talk to any type of person. He can raise a lot of resources, he is very disciplined, he’s a good messenger and he has a pretty good record to run on even with a divided government,” said Zack Roday, a Republican strategist who has done work for Youngkin in the past. “He has a big future ahead of him for sure, however he decides to serve and continue.”
Youngkin’s evolving relationship with Trump
During Youngkin’s 2021 run he navigated complex political terrain, praising Trump while also keeping him at arms’ length. Once he won the GOP nomination, he admitted President Joe Biden had won the election in 2020, which did him no favors with the now president-elect.
In the past, Trump has lashed out publicly at the governor, especially when Youngkin flirted with a presidential bid of his own in the early stages of the 2024 race. Youngkin opted out of previous chances to appear alongside Trump like at a rally in Richmond ahead of Super Tuesday, but eventually endorsed him in the 2024 race after Trump won in Virginia.
Once polling showed Trump tied with Biden in Virginia ahead of the president’s decision to drop out of the race, Trump and Youngkin met in early June to discuss the possibility of turning the state red. He was touted as a potential running mate for Trump, something Trump himself said he would consider, before he eventually opted for Sen. JD Vance (R-OH). Youngkin nonetheless received a prime time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and stayed in Trump’s good graces after he signed an executive order that allowed Virginia to purge an estimated 1,600 suspected noncitizens from its voter rolls.
Trump gave Youngkin a few shout-outs in his 90-minute speech in Salem the Saturday before the election, and at one point invited the governor up to the stage.
“You have a very sane, very solid governor,” Trump told the crowd, standing alongside Youngkin who had traded his signature red vest for a suit jacket.
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Youngkin has managed to strike a balance, keeping the MAGA base energized while also embracing more moderate and independent-leaning Republicans. Roday believes this will only benefit Youngkin in the party as it moves post-Trump in future elections.
Youngkin has now switched out of his red vest and into a suit jacket. pic.twitter.com/ywvRt4nNQ0
— Samantha-Jo Roth (@SamanthaJoRoth) November 2, 2024
“He is certainly his own person. There’s a lot of benefit in running in the off-year like Virginia, huge national attention on it,” Roday explained. “The coalition he built in 2021, you could see how that could be appealing at any moment for any elected official because of what it means to the country.”
“Virginia has a lot of similarities to where we are as a country nationally, a diverse state that still has strong conservative roots that also has a growing progressive population in certain inner suburbs,” he said. “If you can succeed in Virginia, that formula applies elsewhere.”
