Those ballots that voters are filling out now if they’re voting early or are reading up on to make their selections in less than two weeks are stuffed with names. Right at the top are the usual suspects, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Some voters will have other nationally recognized names high on their cards. Pennsylvania voters will be casting an important vote on whether Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) should return to Washington, D.C., or if Dave McCormick should replace him — and possibly change the partisan lean of the chamber.
Moving farther down the list, there will also be hundreds of opportunities to shake up the House of Representatives. Every member is fighting to retain his or her seat, and while some races are closer than others, how much support incumbents and challengers receive will matter, at least for how the candidates and parties view their chances of winning or losing in another two years.
And then there are the all-important races that will determine the power of the parties in state legislatures. For all the anxiety that control of the House, Senate, and White House induces, most voters won’t see drastic changes in their lives depending on who takes power in Washington. The margins will be so thin and almost definitely divided that earthshaking changes will be slow-moving and relatively easy to anticipate.
Which is why the Washington Examiner is encouraging readers this week not to forget about the state and local races that will have a much more sudden effect on their daily lives. We’ve reviewed the fascinating mayoral battles roiling big cities and the contests that will shape criminal justice policies with district attorneys and other prosecutors.
This morning, Breaking News Reporter Ross O’Keefe peeled back the curtain on a handful of state legislatures that could flip entirely or see dominant parties significantly weakened.
Here is a glance at the different scenarios:
Possible flips:
Arizona and Pennsylvania are not only intensely competitive swing states at the hearts of the Trump and Harris campaigns, but they also feature pivotal Senate contests, and their state legislatures are up for grabs.
“Arizona is home to arguably the most hotly contested state legislature races heading into November,” Ross wrote. “Control of both chambers is considered a toss-up, even though Democrats haven’t seized the majority in either the state’s Senate or House in over two decades. Republicans hold a 16-14 state Senate majority and a 31-29 state House majority.”
Abortion is on the ballot in Arizona, which, if history is any indicator, should bode well for Democrats. Republicans have been fighting for tight restrictions on the procedure, refusing to overturn a Civil War-era ban that has fired up abortion-access activists.
Pennsylvania doesn’t have an abortion initiative on its ballot this year, but Democrats in the state are using it as a wedge issue to keep their voters involved.
Republicans have an uphill battle to flip the House in the Keystone State, though they could shake up the Senate with a four-seat swing.
A special election in Minnesota could hollow out Democratic control, too. A Democrat resigned to run for Congress, and Republicans are pouring cash into the race. Flipping the seat would flip control of the chamber.
Starting the swing:
Wisconsin Democrats haven’t had much to write home about besides keeping their party in the governor’s mansion. That could change this year now that Gov. Tony Evers’s (D-WI) attempts to force new legislative maps through are weakening GOP control.
Republicans have a 64-35 advantage in the state Senate, so while victory is far from ensured, a big night in two weeks could give Democrats a feeling of momentum.
Democrats are trying to chip away at large majorities in Kansas and Georgia as well.
Georgia is an important swing state nationally, and Democrats believe they can seize the excitement Harris has stirred up in metro areas to begin making inroads in rural ones. A victory would mean breaking up a supermajority rather than demolishing one.
Click here to read more about these and other pivotal races in key states.
Fit to serve
Former President Barack Obama and Trump have never run against each other. Not directly, anyway.
At separate events in key states on Tuesday, the wildly charismatic duo had the other in their sights, making each other the butt of jokes and the object of their scorn on the campaign trail.
Obama was stumping for Harris. He got up onstage with Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), Harris’s running mate, and took shots at Trump’s photo op at McDonald’s before turning up the heat on Trump’s performance on the trail.
“Have you seen Mr. Trump lately? He’s out there just — he’ll give, like, 2 1/2-hour speeches,” Obama said. “Just a word salad, you don’t know what the heck he’s saying.”
Congressional Reporter Rachel Schilke painted a picture of the dueling events and how the Trump and Harris camps are doing their best to convince voters that the other just isn’t up to the job of being president.
“Age and declining mental facilities plagued President Joe Biden prior to his departure from the November race, but those accusations are still a focal point of the presidential election for both sides of the aisle as Harris, Trump, and their allies argue that their opponent is not fit to serve in the White House,” Rachel wrote.
“Both presidential campaigns traveled to battleground states on Tuesday as polling shows the head-to-head race is within the margin of error of each other in several key states that could sway the Nov. 5 contest,” she wrote.
Obama’s swipe might have undercut the narrative Harris is trying to push after reports came out that Trump is skipping events because he’s “exhausted.”
“He is ducking debates and canceling interviews,” Harris said on Friday. “And check this out — his own campaign team recently said it is because of exhaustion.”
Trump, who was careful in how he lobbed attacks at Biden, knowing questions about age could come back to bite him, is trying to flip the attacks around on the 60-year-old Harris.
“You know where Kamala is today? They don’t want to tell you,” Trump said. “She’s sleeping. She took a day off. She’s got no energy at all. … Her speeches last for about 15 minutes.”
And he used the same “exhausted” language an aide reportedly used to describe him against the former president.
“I’m glad they’re bringing him out. The reason they’re bringing him out is because he doesn’t even want to do it,” Trump said. “I think he’s exhausted. I watched him talk. … I think the guy’s exhausted. And I never say a guy is looking old, but he’s looking a little bit older, isn’t he?”
Click here to read more about how mental and physical fitness didn’t disappear as an issue when Biden dropped out.
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For your radar
Harris will travel to Pennsylvania to participate in a CNN town hall at 9 p.m. An interview she recorded with Spanish language news station Telemundo on Tuesday will air at 7 p.m.
Biden does not have anything on his public schedule.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will brief reporters at 1:30 p.m.
Trump will hold a “believers and ballots” town hall in Georgia with Lt. Gov. Burt Jones. Later, Trump will deliver the keynote address at a Turning Point Action rally in Duluth, Georgia, at 7 p.m.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff is touring Florida, speaking at a get-out-the-vote rally in Hallandale Beach at 6 p.m. and speaking at a campaign reception on behalf of the Harris Victory Fund in Coral Gables at 7:30 p.m.
Walz’s interview with Raúl Molinar will be streamed on Univision Radio at 9:20 a.m. Eastern time. In the evening, Walz is speaking at a campaign reception in Louisville, Kentucky.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is keeping the pressure on in Nevada with campaign events in Las Vegas at Treasure Island at 1 p.m. Eastern and an appearance in Reno at 4:30 p.m.
