Both parties are seeing mixed signals from the data 19 months ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, less than 100 days into President Donald Trump’s second term.
Trump’s support is softening amid economic worries, and there are growing signs of rage on the Left, though the Democratic Party remains deeply unpopular and shows little indication of being able to capitalize on either trend.
Even with some slippage, Trump is posting better numbers than he has for most of his decade atop the national political scene. According to a polling aggregate by CNN’s Harry Enten, Trump’s favorability ratings, though slightly underwater, are higher this month than at a comparable point in 2017 or when he won the election in November.
Similarly, while a small majority of people still tell pollsters the country is on the wrong track, the percentage saying it is moving in the right direction has spiked since Trump took office. That number is at 40% or higher in six of the seven polls included in the latest RealClearPolitics average. An NBC News poll recorded its highest right direction percentage since 2004, Marist since 2009.
Many voters who cast their ballots for Trump like what he is doing and are happier than when former President Joe Biden was in office. Those who pulled the lever for former Vice President Kamala Harris are unhappier, but there was a certain amount of progressive discontent with Biden.
Democrats hope all these numbers will get much worse for Trump as tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their implementation sap the economy. They also believe their base’s backlash against Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency will spread to the rest of the electorate as essential public services are eventually affected.
Historically, the party controlling the White House loses congressional seats in the midterm elections. Right now, Republicans hold what political analysts like to call the “trifecta” — the House, Senate, and presidency.
But Republicans underperformed in a similar scenario in 2022, winning the House but falling short of taking control of the Senate back from the Democrats. Other exceptions to the general rule include the 2002 midterm elections, which occurred a little more than a year after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the 1998 elections that took place after congressional Republicans impeached then-President Bill Clinton.
There are also fewer swing districts than before, as Republicans already hold the reddest and Democrats the bluest seats in the country. This was a problem for House Republicans in 2022 and could hamper their Democratic counterparts next year.
Democrats held their own in the Senate, actually picking up a seat in 2022, thanks in part to weak Republican candidates. But that only got them from 50-50, with Harris breaking ties, to 51-49. After last year’s elections, Democrats are down to 47 Senate seats against the GOP’s 53.
Democrats posted record-low favorability ratings in recent polls. CNN found 29% viewed the party favorably, the lowest in the network’s polling dating back to 1992. NBC News also found just 27% viewed the Democrats favorably, a low in their polling since 1990. At least some of this is progressive disenchantment with the party rather than a swing to the right, however.
The angry protests spearheaded by the likes of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), along with the organized demonstrations at Republican lawmakers’ town hall meetings, could be a sign of organic progressive energy. Or, along with anti-Tesla violence targeting Musk’s bottom line, they could repel the wider electorate.
Yet Democrats still have hope even without a course correction or DOGE and the tariffs eroding Trump’s standing. Their base now includes many high-propensity voters sure to show up for the midterm elections. Republicans may struggle to turn out the lower-propensity voters who brought Trump back to the White House without the president himself on the ballot.
Democrats won a special election in Pennsylvania this week in a predominantly Republican district. Democrats also flipped an Iowa state Senate seat eight weeks earlier and only narrowly lost a special House election in the Hawkeye State earlier this month, suggesting the pattern of overperformance in the off-year elections may be continuing. Republicans are currently worried about a special congressional election in Florida next week.
THE CENTRISTS ARE LOSING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY’S CIVIL WAR
The two parties are closely matched in generic congressional ballot polls, in which respondents say whether they want Capitol Hill to be run by Republicans or Democrats.
Trump is proceeding as if he needs to get as much as possible done before the midterm elections, and the inevitable subsequent shift to the 2028 presidential election, in which he is currently constitutionally ineligible to run. Republicans will defend a razor-thin House majority next year.
