The House and Senate have passed their respective budgets after a dramatic showing from GOP leadership in the House Tuesday evening, but both still need to be negotiated between the two chambers.
After whipping Republican holdouts in the final minutes before the House vote, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was able to narrowly pass the budget resolution through the lower chamber with the GOP’s slim majority. House committees can now draft legislation at certain spending levels.
The Senate’s version of the budget resolution allows Republicans to bypass the filibuster and was adopted 52-48 along party lines, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) being the lone GOP “no” vote.
The budgets advancing have no effect on the looming government shutdown in March, but they do set the table for what next year will look like.
Here’s what to know moving forward:
How the budget process works in Congress
The annual federal budget process typically begins with federal agencies sending requests to the president, who then submits a detailed budget request to Congress for the coming fiscal year, which starts on Oct. 1.
Congress then holds hearings in 12 appropriations subcommittees to ask administration officials about their requests. The legislative branch typically develops its own budget plan, called a “budget resolution.” The twelve subcommittees then negotiate their own spending bills to fund different functions in the federal government such as defense spending and energy.
The Senate and House, now that they have both passed their version of the budget, will enter negotiations to finalize the legislation. There are some differences between the two texts.
The House version authorizes between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in spending cuts, as well as a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase. Unlike the Senate’s budget resolution, the House version calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts in order to renew portions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which are set to expire at the end of this year. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is viewed among Republicans as one of the most successful pieces of legislation passed in President Donald Trump first term in office.
Congress is supposed to pass the budget resolution by April 15, which is five and a half months before the Oct. 1 start of the fiscal year, but negotiations between the two chambers often take longer.
It’s unclear at this time which version Trump prefers. About an hour before the budget resolution landed on the House floor, he told reporters he is “looking at them both” and will pick which version he likes better.
“I know the Senate’s doing very well, and the House is doing very well, but each one of them has things that I like, so we’ll see if we can come together,” Trump said.
Both chambers must pass a single version of each funding bill. Congress is then tasked with sending the approved funding bills to the president to sign or veto.
Likelihood of a government shutdown next month
Because this budget would not go into effect until the next fiscal year, Congress still needs to figure out how to continue funding the government through March 14, when the current budget expires. Largely due to infighting among House Republicans in the 118th Congress, the House was unable to pass a new budget and relied on continuing resolutions to continue funding the government on the budget set in years prior.
At this time, a CR appears to be the most likely path for the government to stay open. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told Senate Republicans on Tuesday that extending the current budget until the Oct. 1 deadline is now the likeliest option.
“I prefer, obviously, always prefer to move bills, individual bills, or at least bundled, packaged. But, you know, we’re running out of time, and so we’ve got a short window to work with,” Thune said on Tuesday.
Democratic leaders have said they do not want to shut down the government. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has stated Democrats will not push for a shutdown to fight Trump’s agenda.
“Democrats stand ready to support legislation that will prevent a government shutdown,” Schumer wrote in the letter to his conference. “Congressional Republicans, despite their bluster, know full well that governing requires bipartisan negotiation and cooperation. It is incumbent on responsible Republicans to get serious and work in a bipartisan fashion to avoid a Trump Shutdown.”
However, recent shutdown showdowns have had to be saved with Democratic votes. With the GOP’s razor-thin House majority and a number of hard-line conservative members refusing to vote in favor of continuing resolutions, it is likely that Republicans will need Democrats once again if they wish to keep the government open.
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), who is friendly with GOP leadership, told reporters that a shutdown would be on Democrats despite them being in the minority.
“Republicans do not have the votes to keep government open on our own. If the Democrats want to shut it down, they can,” he said.
WHAT HAPPENS IF CONGRESS DOESN’T PASS A STOPGAP SPENDING BILL
Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-CA), the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, addressed Johnson’s remarks.
“If Republicans don’t want to govern, they just need to give us a couple votes and we’ll put Hakeem Jeffries in the speaker chair,” he said.
