A court ruling out of Florida is giving Democrats fresh hope they can win the state after a measure to guarantee abortion access was added to the November ballot.
But the path to an upset, both at the top of the ticket and down ballot, will be difficult due to structural advantages Republicans have in the increasingly red state.
The court ruling, issued by the Florida Supreme Court, approved a vote on an abortion rights amendment that mirrors Roe v. Wade in its cutoff at fetal viability. Simultaneously, the judges cleared the way for a six-week abortion ban signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to go into effect on May 1.
The decisions put abortion back in the spotlight, injecting new life into Democratic campaigns ahead of the general election, as the party sees the ballot measure, plus a second on recreational marijuana, as a way to drive out Democratic turnout in a year where enthusiasm may have been lacking.
“These very key amendments are going to be on the ballot, and that drives out a different constituency and are going to put Republicans at odds with a broad electorate,” said Christian Ulvert, a Democratic strategist based in Miami-Dade.
Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group that launched the abortion ballot initiative last year, said it collected more than 1 million signatures and that a large portion came from registered Republican voters. Previously, voters in states that put forward such ballot initiatives ended up codifying access.
In a new memo, President Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Julie Chavez Rodriguez, writes that abortion “will help mobilize and expand the electorate in the state, given the overwhelming majority of Floridians support abortion rights.”
“Florida Republicans will be forced to defend their cruel, indefensible support of this abortion ban,” Chavez Rodriguez added.
She emphasized that the rulings represented an “opening” in Florida but conceded it is “not an easy state to win.” Florida Democrats have lost ground in voter registration to Republicans and have struggled to compete in the ground game.
No Democratic presidential candidate or Senate candidate has won in the state since 2012, when President Barack Obama and former Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) won reelection.
Ulvert acknowledged the state has trended more red in recent years but sees this election as a major opportunity for Democrats to make up lost ground.
“I appreciate when folks say Florida has become more red because on paper it has, but it hasn’t become more red because of anything Republicans have done; it’s because of what Democrats haven’t done,” Ulvert said.
He pointed to 2022, when DeSantis flipped Miami-Dade, a populous county that had previously been seen as a key Democratic stronghold in the state.
“I look at Miami-Dade as case in point, where Ron DeSantis won Miami-Dade, not because Republicans did anything right, not because they had some surge in registration; it’s because 29% of Hispanic Democrats turned out to vote and 31% of black Democrats turned out to vote,” he said. “There’s no way we win with that. There’s zero path for us to win a county with those numbers; it’s a lack of participation.”
After the ruling came out on Monday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee noted that Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who is up for reelection this cycle, said he would have signed a six-week ban previously. The Florida senator is facing a challenge from former Rep. Debbie Murcarsel-Powell on the Democratic side.
“The fight against these new restrictions on access to abortion will shine a brighter spotlight on Rick Scott’s long, dangerous record of supporting draconian abortion bans,” said Maeve Coyle, a spokeswoman for the DSCC. “In November, Florida voters will stand up for women’s freedom to make their most personal medical decisions by rejecting this abortion ban and firing Rick Scott from the Senate.”
DeSantis, for his part, enacted a 15-week abortion ban in 2022 but then signed a six-week law as he mounted an unsuccessful presidential run that revolved around his strength in Iowa, a state with a critical evangelical population. Some Republicans believe DeSantis’s actions could have negative implications once voters head to the polls this November.
“This is just adding fuel to the fire. I really think if he had left this at a 15-week ban, we wouldn’t be in this politically precarious situation,” said a former Florida Republican lawmaker, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect candidly on the situation. “Democrats have been irrelevant in this state for several years now, but now, this gives them another chance to take a bite of the apple, and I just think that’s a shame.”
“I’m not suggesting that these ballot measures are enough to doom former President Donald Trump in Florida, but I do have concerns about other Republican candidates who are now once again on defense on this issue,” the person added.
However, some Florida Republicans aren’t as concerned, pointing to the fact that they control all political power in the state and their voting registration advantage continues to grow.
“Obviously these two ballot amendments will certainly boost turnout in Florida and will likely be to the benefit of Democrats. That said, though, Republicans have an 800,000 voter registration advantage in the state, and it only keeps growing larger,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist in Florida.
O’Connell also noted that Floridians have previously elected Republicans while also approving ballot measures that increased the minimum wage, legalized medical marijuana, and restored felons’ voting rights.
“I think what a lot of people miss is that Florida over its time has had a tendency to vote for left-leaning ballot initiatives, and still right-leaning candidates,” he said.
In addition to the abortion measure, a divided Florida Supreme Court also approved a proposed constitutional amendment that would approve the recreational use of marijuana, which Democrats see as another opportunity to attract voters.
Ulvert said he expects to see more resources and money flowing into the state as a result of the ballot measures and that Democrats shouldn’t be afraid to invest in the state, even though there aren’t many races that could determine the balance of power in Congress, or who occupies the White House.
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The Biden campaign will be tempted to avoid Florida and focus instead on tight battlegrounds including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The same can be said for the Senate map, with Democrats forced to pour resources into Ohio and Montana in a bid to maintain their narrow control of the upper chamber.
“All the opportunity for resources to come into the state is very real now,” Ulvert said. “We cannot allow a state like Florida to recede when it comes to freedom and reproductive rights, so infusion of resources makes an even more compelling case of why this becomes a battleground state.”
