Two Florida congressional races once considered unworthy of national attention are turning heads as Democrats pour millions of dollars into the contests in hopes of establishing purple footholds in the Sunshine State for the first time in years.
Florida, once a purple state, has trended Republican in recent years. Though the state voted for former Democratic President Barack Obama and former Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in 2012, the last few election cycles have shown Floridians may have moved on from Democrats despite the party’s insistence that the state is still a priority.
However, a surge in fundraising from the two Democrats seeking to fill seats left vacant by House Republicans is an early sign that the GOP may have a difficult time holding on to its razor-thin majority heading into the next two years of elections — even in red states such as Florida.
Next Tuesday, special elections will be held to fill the seats of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) in the 1st District and national security adviser Mike Waltz in the 6th District. Though projected to remain in GOP hands, the seats are becoming increasingly competitive thanks to Democrats outraising Republicans by several million dollars.
Josh Weil, a teacher and the Democratic nominee for Waltz’s district, has raised at least $9.5 million. Gay Valimont, the Democratic candidate to succeed Gaetz, disclosed raising $6.5 million total in Federal Election Commission filings last week.
Comparatively, 1st District GOP nominee Jimmy Patronis, the chief financial officer of Florida, and 6th District GOP nominee Randy Fine, a state senator, have raised a combined $3.1 million.
The level of GOP fundraising, or lack thereof, is catching the attention of Republican congressional campaign leaders.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) admitted to reporters that the numbers were not looking good for Fine on Monday but insisted the seat would stay in GOP hands.
“He needs to do better,” Hudson said. “But we’re going to win that seat. I would have preferred if our candidate had raised money at a faster rate and gotten on TV quicker. But he’s doing what he needs to do.”
House Democrats are also taking note of the fundraising levels. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), who contributed to Weil and Valimont’s campaigns, said the large expenditures for the Democrats in Florida’s 1st and 6th districts prove Americans are turning away from the Republican agenda.
“These are races that should not, under ordinary circumstances, be on anyone’s political radar,” Jeffries said at his weekly press conference on Monday. “They are safe Republican seats…[but] the American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling. That is why they are on the run.”
Jeffries pointed to Democrats overperforming in several special elections since President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, including flipping a state Senate seat in Iowa that voted for Trump by 21 points in 2024.
Compared to other battleground states, Florida was not a significant electoral target in the 2024 election. Trump beat Democratic former Vice President Kamala Harris by 13 percentage points, and Waltz and Gaetz won their reelection races by more than 30 percentage points each. At the state level, every legislative race was targeted by Democrats except for one captured by Republicans last November.
The last time Democrats experienced a chance to keep Florida purple was in 2018 when Nelson sought to keep his seat. He ultimately lost to now-Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). Democrat Andrew Gillum also narrowly lost to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) that year. DeSantis soundly defeated former Gov. Charlie Crist in 2022 — largely thanks to Latinos trending more Republican and allowing him to flip Miami-Dade County for the first time in years.
Both Republicans in the special election have Trump’s endorsement, which carries weight in the deep-red districts. However, in Patronis’s case, he has had to do something Gaetz rarely needed to do — pay for advertising in a general election, according to the Pensacola News Journal. Early turnout data for the 1st District show Republicans with only a 4.9-point advantage in the race as of last week.
Patronis traveled to the White House on Monday for Greek Independence Day celebrations, and Trump offered words of support for the Republican candidate.
“You got to win that one, but they got to get out and vote, right, Jimmy? But you’re doing great,” the president said.
Republicans are particularly concerned with the state of things in the 6th District. Trump reminded voters of his support for Fine on social media last week. Fine amplified the post and reminded followers they “need to make sure no one takes this for granted.”
Defend American Jobs, a cryptocurrency-aligned super PAC, is spending $1.5 million boosting the two Republican candidates. Most of the ad spending, around $1.2 million, is supporting Fine, according to the Washington Post.
ELISE STEFANIK FINALLY GETS HER CONFIRMATION DATE AFTER HOUSE GOP MATH ADDS UP
Trump and Republicans are counting on wins from Fine and Patronis as they navigate a small majority and, particularly, as they seek to codify the president’s agenda through a process called budget reconciliation. Due to vacancies and recent deaths, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) cannot afford to lose more than two Republicans as he tries to pass contentious legislation along party lines.
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination as U.N. ambassador is finally set to move forward on April 2 after months of delay due to the small House margins, one day after the special elections in Florida. The special election to fill Stefanik’s seat will come after she resigns her seat, though the exact date is unclear amid concerns that Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) would seek to delay the contest. Her 21st District is reliably red and expected to stay in GOP hands.
