Incumbent Republicans came out on top on Tuesday after several GOP lawmakers beat back their primary challengers — though for some of them, the fight is not over, as they face more challenging contests in November against strong Democratic candidates.
In Florida, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) defeated a Kevin McCarthy-backed challenger, the latest episode in their feud stemming from a Gaetz-led effort to oust the former speaker from the position last year. Several other House members whose races have shifted slightly in favor of Democrats gained their respective challengers Tuesday night, setting up competitive matchups this fall.
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) handily defeated his GOP challenger on Tuesday, putting him on an easy path to reelection this fall, as well.
In good news for Democrats, Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) advanced to the general election with two strong Republican contenders at her heels, with all three preparing for the state’s unique ranked-choice voting system that helped the Democratic congresswoman flip the seat for the first time in five decades.
Gaetz defeats McCarthy-backed challenger in final stop for ‘revenge tour’
Gaetz handily defeated Aaron Dimmock, a retired Navy pilot backed by McCarthy allies, on Tuesday night, 72.5% to 27.5% as of 10:03 p.m. with 94% of ballots counted.
Though McCarthy himself did not funnel money into Dimmock’s campaign, the Freedom Patriots PAC, connected to allies of the former speaker, spent $3 million supporting the Navy pilot and attacking Gaetz over investigations into allegations of sex trafficking, sexual misconduct, and illegal drug use.
Despite being outspent nearly 4 to 1, Gaetz came out on top largely thanks to his household name in northern Florida and Republican primary voters’ aversion to McCarthy.
McCarthy’s allies, anticipating that Dimmock would not succeed in ousting Gaetz, are setting their sights on 2026, hoping that the negative ad campaigning against Gaetz would hurt his chances of running for governor. The Florida congressman has said he has no plans to run for the gubernatorial office, but eyes are on him and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) to potentially lead the GOP field for the governor’s mansion.
Gaetz’s victory on Tuesday is a blow to McCarthy as the final stop in his “revenge tour” against the eight House Republicans who voted to oust him as speaker. The other seven GOP lawmakers either won their primaries, ran uncontested, or opted not to run for reelection.
Mary Peltola and three others advance to ranked-choice general election
Peltola and two Republican challengers advanced to the general election on Tuesday night, as Alaska’s primary sends the top four vote-getters to the ballots in November regardless of party.
The Democratic congresswoman received the most votes with 50.9%, followed by Nick Begich with 26.9% and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom with 19.9% with 56% of ballots counted as of 1:20 a.m. A fourth candidate, who has not been selected at the time of this story’s publishing, will move on to the general election, as well.
Other than the three selected, all nine other candidates received less than 1 percentage point in votes. GOP candidate Matthew Salisbury held the highest among the nine with 0.6% of the vote as of 1:20 p.m.
The general election will be ranked-choice voting, a vote-by-preference system in which voters select their first through fourth choices. If a candidate receives 50% or more of first-choice votes in the initial count, they win. If not, the votes will be reallocated based on those eliminated.
This voting process was one of the factors that helped Peltola flip Alaska’s lone House seat Democratic for the first time in 50 years. GOP infighting also helped Peltola’s victory, as the two leading Republican candidates in 2022 focused more on mudslinging each other than campaigning against Peltola. Republicans ultimately failed to consolidate under one candidate, splitting the vote and allowing Peltola to win both the special and general elections in 2022.
This year, Peltola is facing another duo of Republican challengers, though they have tried to keep the attention on Peltola instead of swinging insults at one another.
Prior to the primary, Begich, who ran unsuccessfully against Peltola in 2022, said he would drop out of the race if he came in behind Dahlstrom. Dahlstrom, who is backed by former President Donald Trump and national Republicans, made no such pledge and indicated she will press forward in a statement Wednesday morning Eastern time.
“From day one, this campaign has been about defeating Mary Peltola in November. Tonight’s results show my message of standing up for Alaska’s energy interests, securing the border, and fighting back against the anti-Alaska policies of the Biden-Harris administration is resonating with voters across the state,” Dahlstrom said in a statement. “I was endorsed by President Trump, Governor Dunleavy, and Republican leaders in Alaska and Washington, because I’m the only candidate in this race who can beat Mary Peltola. And that’s exactly what we are going to do in November.”
Peltola holds a significant fundraising advantage over Begich and Dahlstrom. Peltola’s campaign reported having $2.8 million cash on hand as of July 31, compared to Dahlstrom with $317,617 and Begich with $172,548. Peltola’s campaign has raised more than $7.5 million this cycle, compared to Begich’s $983,000 and Dahlstrom’s $912,000.
“Extreme Democrat Mary Peltola talks a good game in Alaska, but her voting record enabled Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the Squad’s liberal agenda destroying Alaska’s future,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Ben Petersen said in a statement. “Actions speak louder than words. Peltola’s failed record made Alaskans poorer and less safe, which is why we are confident Alaskans will flip the seat red again as it was under Don Young.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to Begich and Peltola for comment.
Rick Scott gains strong Democratic challenger
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) easily defeated two GOP challengers on Tuesday and will face former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in November. Mucarsel-Powell was ousted in 2020 by Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) and is preparing to make a comeback to Congress, raking in millions of dollars compared to Scott’s coffers.
Federal Election Commission reports on July 31 show Mucarsel-Powell has $4.4 million in her account compared to Scott’s $3.9 million. She raised $14.4 million from donors, with Scott putting in $13.7 million of his own money into the contest. For comparison, Scott spent $63.6 million of his own money in 2018 and barely ousted then-Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.
However, polling still shows Scott has a lead in the race, with a recent survey from Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research USA released on Aug. 14 finding Scott ahead of Mucarsel-Powell by 4 percentage points.
Scott’s race will be closely watched in November, particularly as he has already announced he intends to run for Senate Republican leader in the next Congress. Two other GOP senators are interested in the position, currently held by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), as well — but Scott is the only one of the three on the 2024 ballot.
A win from Scott against a strong Democratic challenger could boost his chances of succeeding McConnell, though he will likely face pushback from the longtime Kentucky Republican’s allies. The two men have butted heads since November 2022, after McConnell removed him from the powerful Senate Commerce Committee.
Many Republicans also blamed Scott, who in 2022 was chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, for losses in the midterms that allowed Democrats to capture the majority — a possible thorn in Scott’s side as he competes to lead the GOP conference.
Primary night sets up competitive general election matchups
While some primaries on Tuesday night were not eventful, it does set a handful of incumbents up for a more competitive general election challenge, particularly in Florida.
Florida has three congressional races that are considered competitive: the 13th District, held by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) and rated “likely Republican”; the 9th District, held by Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) and rated “likely Democratic”; and the 23rd District, held by Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) and rated “likely Democratic.”
The three House members ran uncontested on Tuesday but gained a strong general election competitor that could bring the results in November down to the wire.
A lot is on the line for House Republicans, who are seeking to keep hold of and expand their narrow majority in the upper chamber. For House Democrats, protecting their safe seats is imperative so they can focus more time and resources on swing districts and flip the House back under their control.
Darren Soto – 9th District
Soto, whose 9th District race is given a D+8 advantage, ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. He will face former Osceola County School Board member Thomas Chalifoux in November.
Chalifoux defeated GOP challengers John Quinones and Jose Castillo with 49.6% of the vote as of 9:27 p.m. Quinones was a familiar name for voters, as he ran and lost in the 2022 Republican primary to Scott Moore. Moore lost to Soto by over 14,000 votes.
The 9th District became a Hispanic-majority district in 2022 thanks to redistricting. President Joe Biden won Soto’s district with 58% to Trump’s under 41% of the vote, but Moore came within 8 points of defeating Soto last cycle with no solid Republican Party support — meaning national Republicans are eyeing the 9th District as a possible pick-up opportunity for the 2024 cycle.
Anna Paulina Luna – 13th District
Luna’s 13th District drew five Democratic challengers for the primary. The incumbent won in 2022 partially thanks to redistricting that shifted the district to have a more Republican advantage. Despite having an R+6 rating from Cook Political Report, it is one of three congressional races in Florida labeled as competitive.
Whitney Fox defeated her four competitors with 58.1% of the vote as of 9:28 p.m. with 99% of ballots counted. She outraised all of her challengers combined by over $100,000 and ended the quarter with more cash on hand than her opponents at $355,684, according to Federal Election Commission records.
However, Fox is still far behind Luna. The incumbent has nearly $866,000 cash on hand as of the end of June, giving Luna almost a $500,000 advantage over Fox in a general election matchup. Fox has several local, state, and national endorsements, including Reps. Kathy Castor (D-FL), Lois Frankel (D-FL), Eric Swalwell (D-CA), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL).
A poll from May found Luna with a 5 percentage point advantage over Fox, 51% to 46%.
Jared Moskowitz – 23rd District
Six Republican challengers faced off on Tuesday to compete against Moskowitz for control of the 23rd District in Florida. Joe Kaufman defeated Robert Weinroth, Carla Spaulding, Darlene Cerezo Swaffar, Gary Barve, and Joe Thelusca with 35.5% of the vote as of 10:06 p.m. with 82% of ballots counted.
Kaufman has previous national election experience. He won the GOP primary in 2014, 2016, and 2018 before losing to Wasserman Schultz, who represented the 23rd District before redistricting took place.
Moskowitz defeated Republican Joe Budd with 51.6% of the vote compared to Budd’s 46.8% in 2022. He won by just 5 percentage points, despite Biden winning the district in 2020 by 13 points. The Cook Political Report gives Democrats a +5 advantage in Moskowitz’s race this year.
The Florida Democrat is respected in both parties, with Republicans often conceding he is handling his job representing the district well, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Moskowitz, who is Jewish, became one of the most vocal House Democrats calling for support of Israel as conflicts spread out across college campuses over the Israel-Hamas war.
Maria Elvira Salazar – 27th District
While her race is not considered to be as competitive, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) is representing a once-comfortably blue seat that has trended toward Republicans in recent years. Though Hillary Clinton carried the seat in 2016, Trump won the seat in 2020, allowing Salazar to oust former Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala in 2020.
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Salazar also defeated her 2022 opponent by 15 points, making it unlikely that a Democratic challenger will unseat her this cycle thanks to her large war chest and moderate positions on policy issues like immigration and gay marriage, per Cook Political Report.
The Florida congresswoman defeated GOP challenger Royland Lara with 88.7% of the vote as of 9:54 p.m. Salazar will face Lucia Baez-Geller, who won the nomination with 54.0% of the vote, in the general election. The seat is rated as “likely Republican.”
