Despite months of turmoil and fractures within the House Republican Conference, the GOP remains in a better position to win control of the next House than Democrats.
While Republican retirements and infighting have weakened the House GOP’s margin for error, its prospects still look good heading into November, according to an analysis from Inside Elections.
There are 188 races currently regarded as solidly in control of Republicans and 28 rated as lean, tilt, or likely Republican, bringing the total for the GOP to 216 seats. This means the Republicans only need to win two of the 10 seats rated as “toss-ups” to reach 218 and secure a majority.
As for the Democrats, there are currently 175 seats rated as solidly Democratic. Thirty-four seats are regarded as lean, tilt, or likely Democratic, bringing their total to 209. In order for the Democrats to win a majority, they must win nine of the toss-up seats.
National Republican Congressional Committee national press secretary Will Reinert gave several reasons for the analysis looking grim for Democrats, citing a Roll Call article that stated, “the GOP is better-positioned to maintain control of the House.”
“The border, crime and economic crisis — it’s an anchor around the necks of extreme House Democrats’ reelection prospects,” Reinert said.
Five of the toss-up seats are currently held by Republicans, and five are held by Democrats, including an open seat in Michigan currently held by Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who is running for Senate.
President Joe Biden won nine of the toss-up districts in 2020, whereas Donald Trump only won one — Washington’s 3rd Congressional District. Democrats are hoping that Biden’s success in toss-up districts four years ago will carry over for them in the House, but his low approval ratings might suggest otherwise.
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The mass exodus of House Republicans, including Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) announcing he will leave before his term expires, has shrunken the House GOP’s majority. Furthermore, disagreements between prominent lawmakers have continued to display the fractures in the conference, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene even filing a motion to vacate House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
Still, Democrats face an uphill battle to wrestle back control of the lower chamber, with the data pointing to Republicans retaining their hold.
