House Republicans have had a turbulent tenure in the majority of the lower chamber of Congress, but that may not cost them their narrow advantage in the House of Representatives in November.
Republican strategist Karl Rove is among the people not selling off the GOP’s chance of holding on to the House and wrote about it in an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal. Here are three reasons outlined by the veteran GOP operative for why Republicans may still hold on to the House of Representatives.
Retirement advantage
Republicans have had several high-profile retirements, including a handful of early retirements, putting their majority in jeopardy. Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) chair the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and the House Energy and Commerce Committee, respectively, but, as Rove mentioned, most of the retirements are in safe Republican seats.
Democrats — who have had 25 of their House members, compared to 19 Republicans, say they will not seek reelection — are seeing open seats in several competitive districts.
Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), who ran for Senate but lost in the primary, represents a Southern California district with a Democratic +3 partisan voting index, according to the CookPoliticalReport, and is one of the GOP’s top targets. Another vulnerable seat with a retiring incumbent is Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, which is represented by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), who is running for governor in 2025 instead.
Stronger candidates
Another point from Rove is that Republicans are mounting stronger candidates in swing seats that they lost in 2022 despite expectations of a “red wave.”
Rove pointed to two Ohio districts in which Republicans had pickup opportunities, in seats with net Republican partisan voting indexes, according to the CookPoliticalReport. One of the seats, held by Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), has a Republican +3 partisan voting index but stayed in Democratic hands in 2022 after the GOP candidate was involved in a scandal over his military service. Republican J.R. Majewski announced another bid for the seat last year despite losing the race in 2022 but later dropped out of the race for the seat in November.
Redistricting
Republicans have also had several key victories in redistricting battles since the last House elections. Rove pointed out that several pivotal battles over congressional maps went in the GOP’s favor.
In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court declined to throw out the current map, which could have cost Republicans two seats, while in North Carolina, the new map could give Republicans as many as four seats.
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A court order redrawing of the New York congressional map largely spared Republicans, as nearly all of the competitive seats remained unchanged after fears several GOP seats could be cut out of the Empire State’s map.
Republicans hold a 218-213 majority in the House of Representatives and are hopeful to flip control of the Senate in November.
