President Joe Biden is dominating former President Donald Trump in terms of the race for donors, but all his fundraising success might not be enough to win reelection.
Biden is beating his opponent in almost every financial metric. The president has raised nearly $160 million to Trump’s $114 million, and he has more donors contributing to his campaign overall. However, raw dollar figures are not always enough to deliver a win in November.
According to a New York Times report, Biden may be lacking financial firepower in key geographic locations. The latest New York Times/Siena poll puts Biden far behind Trump in many key swing states. In the must-win battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, his donors are dipping, as are population centers in North Carolina, a state the Biden campaign has tried to put in play for Democrats this year.
In some key states such as Arizona, notably Maricopa County, which makes up over 60% of the state’s population, and Wisconsin, Biden is heavily increasing donors. Trump is increasing some donors, but notably in non-competitive Republican states such as Idaho and Utah.
Trump, however, is polling ahead of Biden in five of six key states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Biden is polling ahead.
Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina
Biden lost North Carolina to Trump in 2020 by just over 1 point. Before former President Barack Obama won in 2008, the last time the Tar Heel State chose a Democrat for the presidency was 1976 with Jimmy Carter. Biden’s campaign still believes North Carolina is within reach. In some parts of the population centers of Charlotte and Raleigh, however, the president is losing some donors.
In Charlotte, which is among the 10 fastest-growing cities in the United States, Biden is losing some donors he had in 2020. Many people who are moving to North Carolina are young, minorities, and coming from blue states such as California and New York.
Outside Raleigh, in Durham and Chapel Hill, which are home to Duke University and the University of North Carolina, respectively, Biden is not pulling as many donors as he did in 2020.
Trump, too, is heavily losing donors in Charlotte and Raleigh.
Detroit and Dearborn, Michigan
In Michigan, Biden has 11% more donors than he did in 2020. He is picking up voters in other areas, such as Traverse City and Grand Rapids. In some densely populated areas, however, he is losing donors.
In Dearborn, Biden is not gaining any donors. It is notably the first Arab-majority city in the U.S., with 55% of the population having Middle Eastern or North African heritage. Biden has faced harsh criticism from Democrats there over his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Statewide, he faced an “uncommitted” protest vote against him, with more than 100,000 people voting against him.
Michigan, as a whole, has the highest number of Arab Americans of any state at 2.1% of the population.
In Detroit, Biden is also not gaining any donors from 2020. Detroit is an important stronghold for a demographic Biden is trying to keep in Democrats’ hands: black voters. According to the poll, Trump has made massive gains with black voters, garnering 20% of their support, which would be the highest for any Republican to receive from African Americans since 1964.
Trump has also dipped significantly in donations from the Detroit and Grand Rapids areas. Still, in 2020, Biden won Wayne County, which encompasses both Detroit and Dearborn, by more than 250,000 votes.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh
In population centers such as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, Biden has fewer donors than he did in 2020. It could be worrisome as Pennsylvania is a state Trump narrowly won in 2016 and Biden recaptured in 2020.
In 2020, more than 500,000 people voted for Biden over Trump in Philadelphia County, and in Allegheny County, home of Pittsburgh, Biden was victorious by a large margin.
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Biden has maintained much of his support from older, white voters, and he is the most competitive against Trump in white, northern states such as Pennsylvania.
In neighboring Delaware, Biden’s home state, donors are down as well. This could be because Delaware helped launch Biden’s bid for the presidency in 2020 and that enthusiasm in a primary season was not present this time around.
