According to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll, black voters’ desire to vote in the 2024 general election has fallen off since 2020, which could be worrisome for President Joe Biden.
The poll found that 62% of black voters said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” which is down from 74% who said they were certain to vote in June 2020. The Biden campaign recently announced it would spend $25 million trying to reach key demographics of voters in battleground states in what some have called “the largest and earliest investment in Black media for a reelection campaign in history.”
Younger black voters showed the biggest drop in enthusiasm. Only 41% aged 18-39 said they are certain they will vote in the 2024 general election.
Older black voters are much more likely to vote, and their certainty in voting this election, in fact, has increased since 2020. Eighty-eight percent of black voters older than 65 say they plan on voting this year — up 1 percentage point from June 2020, when 87% said they planned on voting.
In a race between Biden and former President Donald Trump, who has stepped up his efforts to push black voters away from Biden, the survey found that 74% of black registered voters said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Biden. Only 14% said they would “definitely” or “probably” support Trump. When considering third-party candidates, 20% said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Around 60% are favorable toward Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters tend to feel better about Biden than Trump on several issues related to race, including a total of 78% who have an unfavorable view of him and 77% who said they think the former president is “biased” against black people. Only 23% said they felt the same way about Biden.
“I’d rather choose the lesser of the two evils,” said Erica Young, a black woman from Georgia who voted for Biden in 2020. “Biden has his faults. There are a lot of questionable things. But if this is the choice between the two of them, I’d rather it be [Biden]. Trump is a show. He’s a clown. He’s not a real politician.”
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Harris recently embarked on an economic tour in Atlanta to tout the president’s economic assistance for black voters.
When looking at party affiliation, 76% of black Democrats said they are certain to vote in this year’s election, which is down from 84% who said the same in 2020.
