In the aftermath of President Joe Biden’s weak debate performance, Democrats are sounding the alarm about the impact it could have on vulnerable incumbents down ballot.
Thursday night’s debate, in which Biden tripped over his words and at times struggled to complete a thought, played into one of Republicans’ biggest electoral arguments: that his age disqualifies him from another term in the White House. But it also raised Democratic fears that a wounded presidential campaign will drag congressional candidates down with him.
“The top of the tickets always matter,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist. “If I’m in a red state, trying to keep my Democratic seat, I’m always concerned, but now I’m really concerned.”
Democrats face an uphill battle to keep their slim, 51-49 majority in the Senate this year. They are defending seats in about half a dozen swing states. Republicans, meanwhile, are defending two at most, in Texas and Florida, though both lean more toward Republicans. The path is even further complicated by the likelihood that the GOP will secure at least one more seat in West Virginia since incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) opted not to run for another term in the red state.
Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) in Montana and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in Ohio are the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this cycle. If either senator has any hope of winning reelection in their red states, they will have to outrun Biden by large margins.
Former President Donald Trump carried Montana by 20 points in 2016, and by 16 points in 2020. An average of polling in the state has Trump up by a similar margin. Tester, however, was up by 2 points over likely Republican opponent Tim Sheehy.
Trump won Ohio by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020, a trend that is likely to continue this year. An average of polling in the Buckeye State shows Trump winning by an average of 9 points. Brown has been up by an average of 5.
“Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown want to talk about their own records and they want to talk about the bulwark of goodwill they’ve built up over several terms even though their states are or have become more conservative,” Reinish explained. “What they don’t want to do is answer questions about Joe Biden for the next four months.”
The Democrats’ Senate campaign arm maintains its roster of candidates are in the best position to win in November.
“As we’ve always said, Senate campaigns are candidate vs. candidate battles and Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed recruits — we’ll win because we have the better candidates,” David Bergstein, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
Republicans are already attempting to tie Democrats running in races across the country to Biden’s debate performance. The Republican State Leadership Committee put out a statement claiming, “Every state Democrat running for office should be concerned with the current condition of their leader.”
Senate incumbents in tough reelection battles have previously downplayed questions about Biden’s mental acuity in the aftermath of special counsel Robert Hur’s report that found charges were not “warranted” over Biden’s mishandling of classified documents but raised questions about his memory.
In February 2024, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) said Biden’s memory remained sharp. “I talk to the president on a regular basis and he’s not only focused on priorities, but also very clear about how to keep the country safe,” Casey said, speaking to the Independent. In the same month, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) told CNN, “This isn’t the story I want to talk about.” In August of last year, when asked about Biden’s cognitive ability by NBC News, Sen. Tester said Biden is “absolutely 100% with it” and is “doing a good job.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee put out a video mashup of the Senate candidates responding to questions about Biden’s fitness intermixed with clips of Biden stumbling during the debate on X, formerly known as Twitter.
“Senate Democrats have been telling Americans Joe Biden is still sharp. Jon Tester went as far to say Biden is ‘absolutely 100% with it.’ It is clear they were lying, and voters will remember that in November,” NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
In every Senate battleground state, the Democratic candidate is significantly outraising their top Republican opponent, according to the most recent reports from the Federal Election Commission in April. However, new numbers are expected soon.
Some are concerned an unforeseen consequence of Biden’s debate performance could be that the fundraising to down-ballot Democrats could take a hit.
“Major funders of Democratic campaigns are going to be taking a hard look at whether it’s going to be worth it to spend the money in some of these races, when you have a president that is a drag on the entire ticket right now,” a Democratic operative said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This is not where we wanted to be right now, and if it continues, we could have Trump in the White House and Republicans in control of both the House and Senate.”
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While this first debate was early in the cycle, Reinish believes time is beginning to run out to turn things around for Biden.
“It’s early, but it’s not that early. I think there are people who are saying, ‘Oh, it’s only June,’ but it’s almost July. Primaries are going to be over for states who have late primaries, conventions are right around the corner, it’s not that early,” he said.
