Democratic euphoria over Vice President Kamala Harris has been replaced by panic as former President Donald Trump makes marginal gains in a close presidential race.
Democrats find themselves in much better place than two months ago, when President Joe Biden trailed Trump across the battleground map. Harris has pulled within the margin of error from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin since taking over the ticket.
Yet her perceived inability to connect with traditionally Democratic voters has cast a pall over the polls showing a toss-up race. Harris is underperforming Biden with black voters by 10 points, according to a recent survey from the New York Times-Siena College, while blue-collar white voters continue their rightward drift to Trump.
“The existential dread is real for non-Trump fans,” according to Democratic pollster Stefan Hankin, who said Democrats were not this nervous in past presidential races.
“The idea of a Romney presidency wasn’t keeping people up at night,” Hankin said of the 2012 election, when the final polls showed a close race nationally between President Barack Obama and now-Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). “It wasn’t this, ‘Holy s***, what the hell is going on?’”
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon agreed some Democrats are panicking, “partially because they’re just so terrified of a second Trump term.”
Trump took a slight lead in the forecast of election analyst Nate Silver on Thursday on the strength of two new polls.
“But the reality is, instead of panicking, they should work hard like the vice president,” Bannon told the Washington Examiner.
Democrats hope to repurpose the panic
Kassel Coover, a 42-year-old Chester County social media coordinator who campaigns for Harris in Pennsylvania, warned that Trump’s efforts to win over voters in the Keystone State, the most important battleground state, have become increasingly effective.
“I’m within the 25-mile radius of Philadelphia, so I’m kind of aware of what’s going on over there too, and there is some cause for concern,” Coover told the Washington Examiner. “From my perspective, I’ve kind of had concerns since September. One of the things … happening in this area is that Trump has just been hitting with advertising, nothing but mailers, nothing but ads. It’s just been relentless.”
But Coover said that Harris is “finally catching up” and “gathering steam, but they can’t let off the brake.”
“If we keep moving forward, I think we will continue to close whatever gaps we have,” she added.
Caroline Bradley, a 46-year-old marketing professional also from Chester County, cited more anecdotal evidence of Trump’s popularity in her community.
“I lived here a long time, I know a lot of different people, up and down the political spectrum, and just the quantity of what I’m hearing … and the number of MAGA hats I’m seeing at the grocery store, or, you know, driving my kiddo to his little musical theater class at the Y and how many Trump signs I pass or the ‘Trump cuts taxes, Kamala raises taxes’ signs that we have going on here every,” Bradley said. “It’s scary. I didn’t hear it that much four years ago when Biden was running.”
The warning signs have Democrats fearing another four years of Trump in the White House. But the precarious place Harris finds herself in is also an opportunity, according to Democratic strategist Christopher Hahn, who believes it can help avoid complacency and spur turnout on Election Day.
“I love the anxiety because it gets supporters off the couch and in the field working hard for victory,” said Hahn, a former aide to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and host of the Aggressive Progressive podcast. “The media loves a horse race, and that’s what they’re showing the American people. I believe the race will break hard towards Harris and we will know the winner by 2 a.m. EST Wednesday morning.”
For Hankin, “one of the most uncomfortable things” before an election is “the almost too comfortable lead when you’re like, ‘Oh God, what happens if no one turns out because everyone thinks it’s in the bag?’”
“So for that, yes, this is sort of helpful. This will continue to, hopefully, motivate volunteers, people working the doors, making sure voters actually stay in line and make sure their votes are being counted,” he said. “But there’s a balance point, right? If you do too much of it, then you get into the, ‘Oh my God, what’s the point? We’re just gonna lose, I’m just gonna hunker down and get two weeks worth of food and hope that I survive the nuclear explosions’ or whatever. It’s a fine line.”
‘Nobody’s quietly confident’
“Worrying is just in the Democratic DNA,” one party strategist told the Washington Examiner.
But Harris and Trump are within the margin of error in all seven of the battleground states that will decide this election, and the vice president is underperforming Biden and 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s polls at this point in their campaigns.
For example, Harris has an average 2 percentage point lead nationally over Trump, according to RealClearPolitics. But Biden had a 9-point lead and Clinton was 7 points ahead of Trump at this time in 2020 and 2016, respectively.
Harris’s polling has tightened since the summer because of “real problems” with black and Latino men plus segments of blue-collar voters, according to Democratic strategist Jim Manley. Although Trump is unlikely to win the majority of minority men, he only needs to increase the margin voting for him a small amount to win the election.
“I think the Harris campaign understands that and is working on it, but we need to do a better job of reaching out to these disaffected Democrats,” said Manley, the former communications director for the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
Sharonda Huffman, a Maryland delegate to the Democratic National Convention, wondered whether Harris’s problems with male voters could be based on sexism given the country has never elected a female president.
“If you’ve never seen it, you can’t imagine it,” Huffman told the Washington Examiner. “So some people have this unconscious bias, and they don’t know why they don’t like her.”
“Trump appeals to these alpha males. He appeals to people who want this firm hand, more old-school ideas of what a man is supposed to be,” Bradley, the Pennsylvania voter, added. “There’s nothing wrong with that inherently. There really isn’t. But running a female of color may be harder for people who feel that way.”
Democrats from Michigan to Pennsylvania fear the disconnect is more practical. Harris is not doing enough to tap into a network of surrogates and elected officials, some Detroit politicians have told the Washington Examiner, while others blame insufficient investments in door-knocking or reluctance to do media interviews.
Multiple Democrats reported younger black men citing the stimulus checks that were printed with Trump’s name during the pandemic in explaining their support for him.
South Carolina state Sen. Dick Harpootlian conceded Harris experienced “a post-convention bump,” but he was adamant she has not since spiraled into a “free fall” and said she is “holding her own.”
“Nobody’s quietly confident of anything,” Harpootlian, the former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, told the Washington Examiner. “In a football game, if you’re up by an extra point going into the fourth quarter you’re in, are you confident you’re going to win? Is the other side confident they’re going to lose? … Anybody on either side of this race who’s smug or confident has never been in a political campaign before.”
Democratic strategist Karen Finney, Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign spokeswoman, framed the anxiety as an election year tradition that is endemic to the party.
“What you are seeing is Democrats determined not to take anything for granted in an election that could come down to a small number of votes,” Finney told the Washington Examiner. “Always expected the race to be tight, especially in a 100-day campaign.”
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake echoed that sentiment, telling the Washington Examiner that Harris has “always” been “the underdog.” That’s a message Harris herself has repeatedly communicated in stump speeches since the beginning of her campaign.
Democrats find glimmers of hope
Ultimately, Democrats’ ground game was cited as one cause for some comfort. Both campaigns have outsourced canvassing to outside groups, from liberal MoveOn to conservative Turning Point USA, but the vice president’s has been perceived as more organized.
“I think the superior ground game will produce a slim victory,” Lake said. “She needs to continue to get out her unique economic plan.”
“Trump has no real [get out the vote] effort, the RNC basically shut it down when he took it over, and Trump franchised it out to [Elon] Musk, who has no idea what he’s doing,” added Garry South, an adviser to former Vice President Al Gore and the late Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman.
Musk, the Tesla CEO who endorsed Trump, has funneled $75 million into his super PAC, which he stood up as a turnout operation, but he is a political novice whose staff shake-ups have raised questions about his organization’s effectiveness.
Still, Democrats are not taking the ground game for granted. After attending Gov. Wes Moore‘s (D-MD) birthday celebration this week, Huffman, the Maryland delegate, decided to volunteer for Harris in Pennsylvania.
“One thing that resonated with me — we have three weekends left so what can we do individually to make sure we can pull up this win?” she said. “I had committed, but I want to go to Pennsylvania. … It’s very easy for me to just knock on doors.”
Bannon, the Democratic strategist, added that Harris sitting down for an interview with Fox News after hosting campaign events with Republicans was an “important step” because “she is running a different campaign than Trump.”
Trump has spent less effort trying to expand his reach to voters across the aisle.
“She’s running to reach new voters,” Bannon said. “Trump is running to solidify the vote he already has and I think, in the end, that difference [will be a] big Harris advantage.”
For Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh, that outreach is critical as the campaigns brace for the possibility of an October surprise, even as absentee ballots are mailed and in-person early voting starts in battleground states.
“There usually is some tightening in at this stage,” Marsh told the Washington Examiner. “There are also races where everything gets wide open and it goes in one direction or another in a big way, and there’s still potential for that, where the dominoes fall for one candidate or they fall for the other.”
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In the meantime, Iowa Democrat Charlie Comfort, who has already voted, admits he is “on pins and needles” because he does not know whether he can “trust the polls either way” since they have not always captured the vote accurately in the past.
“I do sense that it’s close, but I also feel like the undecideds will break hard one way or the other, and so the result may not end up being as close as it may seem right now,” Comfort, the at-large member of the Oskaloosa City Council, told the Washington Examiner. “I am definitely concerned that former President Trump could win again, which I think would be a difficult four years. It’s going to be a rough two weeks or so worrying about it.”
