Senate Democrats are brushing off concerns that President Joe Biden will be a drag on the ticket in November even as the party’s most vulnerable incumbents distance themselves from the president.
Biden’s low approval numbers, driven in part by his age and handling of the economy, have set off alarm bells from party operatives warning that former President Donald Trump could win if the president remains on the Democratic ticket. But those fears have implications down ballot, too, as the party attempts to keep its tenuous control of the Senate.
Ordinarily, the party in the White House hopes to benefit from the coattails of their incumbent president. Yet this cycle, they are facing the prospect of having to outperform Biden as polls show him consistently behind in nearly every swing state.
Senate Democrats have generally avoided speculating on whether Biden will drag down vulnerable incumbents, instead framing control of the Senate as a matter of candidate quality.
“We have superior incumbents and candidates running against highly, highly flawed Republican candidates,” Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said. “So, I’m confident we’re going to win.”
Others disputed the idea that Biden is a weak candidate altogether in conversations with the Washington Examiner.
“Every special election and the midterm elections, polling has predicted disaster for Democrats. And the results have ended up being far better than polling would have suggested,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), a key Biden ally on the Hill, said.
In this cycle, Senate candidates appear to be running ahead of Biden in key states. In Nevada, for example, where Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is up for reelection, she is tied with her expected Republican rival in the latest New York Times-Siena poll even as Trump leads Biden there by 13 points.
Rosen’s home state colleague, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), cast doubt on the polling and predicted that Biden would win Nevada, too. In 2020, the president defeated Trump in the Silver State by 2 points.
“Let me just speak for Nevada. Nevada’s races are always close,” Cortez Masto, who narrowly won reelection in 2022, said. “But we’ve seen similar polling numbers, and Democrats always pull it out, including the Democratic president.”
Nonetheless, Nevada is part of a larger trend. Biden trails the party’s Senate incumbents from Arizona to Wisconsin.
Vulnerable Democrats, none more starkly than Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) in deep-red Montana, have sought opportunities to break with Biden. Last week, he released a memo on his “long-standing track record standing up to President Biden” that Republicans quickly seized on as an election-year pivot.
Meanwhile, those in purple states have created daylight with Biden on select wedge issues, including the war in Gaza. Emboldened by progressive members of his party, Biden has increasingly pushed back against Israel’s casualty-heavy military operations, while in-cycle senators, including Rosen and Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), have maintained their support for the Jewish state.
Republicans have attempted to tie these and other Senate Democrats to Biden as the crux of their election pitch, calling them “rubberstamps” in Congress for his agenda. However, Casey, who faces a serious challenge from the Trump-backed Republican David McCormick, argued that incumbents can set themselves up well for reelection if they “effectively” communicate their record to voters.
“I think that when you’re running for public office, you’ve got to make the case to voters about what you’ve done and what you hope to do if you’re, in the case of an incumbent, what you hope to do if you’re reelected,” Casey said. “And as long as you do that and you do it effectively and you communicate with voters, you should be in good shape.”
Fellow Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) took that argument a step further. He conceded there is “some correlation” between what happens at the top of the ticket and the Senate races but predicted the two are “going to be able to move independently.”
“There’s no synergy, for example, in Pennsylvania for McCormick and Trump,” he said, citing their past icy relationship.
“There might be synergy in other races, or you could have a train wreck like Lake,” he added, referring to the Trump loyalist running for Senate in Arizona. “There might be synergy, but she’s a hot mess.”
The Kari Lake campaign, which currently trails in the polls, has previously voiced confidence that Trump’s current lead in Arizona will help buoy the entire Republican ticket.
During the midterm elections, Fetterman defeated television host and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz without distancing himself from Biden. He defiantly embraced progressive causes and told CNN in an interview, “We’re going to embrace Joe Biden.”
Biden’s team remains adamant that by running against Trump’s record, and emphasizing his own, Democrats will maintain control of the White House in November.
“Joe Biden created 15 million jobs, capped the price of insulin at $35, and made healthcare more affordable than ever. That record of historic results for the American people is what the President and Democrats across the country will be running on in November, while Republicans are stuck defending Trump’s promises to cut taxes for the billionaires at the expense of the middle class and ban abortion nationwide,” Mia Ehrenberg, a Biden campaign spokeswoman told the Washington Examiner in a statement.
Other Biden allies expect the polls to tighten as Election Day approaches, in particular after Labor Day.
“There’s a lot of folks trying to dampen enthusiasm for Democrats by pumping out all kinds of polls,” Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), who is retiring at the end of the year, said.
“So, at this point, we’re gonna work hard no matter what. We’re gonna work hard no matter what. And so, the polls right now mean nothing to me,” Stabenow continued.
“Well, they said I was struggling in the polls too I’m here,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), one of two senators who flipped Georgia’s Senate seats during the 2021 runoff elections, ousting Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, chimed in.
“I think we’re six months out. The polls will be all over the place between now and then,” Warnock continued. “I am feeling good because we have a good story to tell about the work that’s been done, and people will feel it.”
Of the Senate Democrats up for reelection, Tester is perhaps the most vulnerable. He is running in a state that Trump won by 16 points in 2020. However, he is part of a long line of vulnerable swing state lawmakers on both sides of the aisle who have distanced themselves from party leaders.
Former Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, a Republican, rebuked Trump for sharing sensitive information with Russian diplomats and for firing former FBI Director James Comey when he was president.
After Democrats retook the House during the 2018 midterm elections, former Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner became the first Republican to call for a vote on House bills to reopen the government, which didn’t include Trump’s wish for funding for a border wall, in January 2019. Comstock and Gardner eventually lost their swing races.
Trump poses liabilities for Republicans as well, especially in swing House races where the Democrats have attempted to paint the incumbents as “MAGA extremists,” and his election to a second term is far from guaranteed.
“I think he’s on a good trajectory, President Trump, but there’s a long way to go, and a lot could happen,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a top Trump ally on Capitol Hill, said.
Meanwhile, the 2023 off-year elections offered some warning that nationalizing a political race hasn’t always paid off for Republicans. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) won his reelection bid despite GOP attempts to tie him to Biden.
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However, even lawmakers who have clashed with Trump in the past have found comfort in the current polling.
“I think Donald Trump’s gonna win,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment, said. “I think he’s in a very strong position. I mean, I know a lot of people don’t have a lot of trust in the polls, but that’s best we got, best snapshot we got right now. It’s looking like Biden is toast.”
