Voter disgruntlement with Democrats, the Biden-Harris agenda, and the downward direction of America have given former President Donald Trump and the Republicans a big edge in the election.
In a poll even liberal media outlets won’t be able to ignore, Gallup said on Tuesday that of the 10 key issues it charts to determine which side is up or down, the Republicans lead in nine.
The Republicans are underwater only on the approval of Congress, and voters don’t like either party on that.
“The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose,” the polling outfit said.
“Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage,” Gallup added.
The analysis highlighted the trend against Democrats. Gallup said more voters identify as Republicans, a rare and unusual finding.
“Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are a Republican advantage in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office,” Gallup said.
On party identification, one of just two issues Gallup rated as a “strong” driver in election outcomes, 48% of people are, or lean, Republican to 45% who are, or lean, Democrat.
Republicans haven’t had the advantage in decades, and the one time they were tied with Democrats in 2004, former Republican President George W. Bush won reelection.
“Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they have rarely outnumbered Democrats in election and nonelection years over the past three decades,” Gallup said.
The second “strong” election driver is which party voters believe will handle big problems, and Republicans dominate there, 46%-41%.
Key for Republicans is the view that they are better suited to handle the economy. By a 50%-44% margin, for example, the GOP is viewed as the party that will make America prosperous.
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The dissatisfaction with the Biden administration is also helping the GOP.
“Biden’s unpopularity could still affect the election to the extent voters transfer their frustrations with the Biden administration to Vice President Kamala Harris. For her part, 44% of U.S. adults approve of the job she is doing as vice president, down slightly from a 47% reading in August,” Gallup said.
