Michigan voters have an outsize impact on who will win the White House and which party will carry the House and Senate in 2024. In this series, Great Stakes: The fight to be hailed as victors in Michigan, the Washington Examiner will look at the thorny politics and unique matters that will swing the critical battleground state. Part three, below, examines how the Israel-Hamas war is creating political consequences for President Joe Biden with key voting blocs.
DEARBORN, Michigan — President Joe Biden is not only facing political consequences for his handling of the Israel–Hamas war with Arab and Muslim voters but also black and young people, many of whom were already skeptical of his administration‘s record and community outreach.
The common interests and concerns of Arab, Muslim, black, and young people are poised to be underscored by Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primary in Michigan, a battleground state where Democrats are being encouraged not to vote for Biden, at least this week, and where margins will matter in November’s general election.
Sameh Elhady, vice chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party’s Arab American Caucus, described how his community has found “connections” with people from different backgrounds, from young liberal Democrats to black and Latino people, during the war regarding their disappointment with Biden as he and his administration try to appeal to those traditionally Democratic demographics before November.
“They are expressing also a certain level of pain based on humanity,” Elhady said. “We are not the same. We have all changed since Oct. 7.”
People “recognize a double standard with the Biden administration,” according to Dawud Walid, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations’s Michigan chapter.
“He was very quick to come out in and condemn the Putin regime for targeting civilians, but when it comes to Palestinian civilians being targeted by Israel, or when Yemeni civilians were being targeted by bombs given to the [United Arab Emirates] and Saudi Arabia, then that was all justified,” Walid, a black Muslim, said. “The reason why Black Lives Matter was started as a slogan is because black people felt that black lives didn’t matter as much in America as white lives. Well, it looks like white European lives matter more than Arab and Muslim lives to the Biden administration.”
Some black people’s support of Palestinians dates back to the 1960s, most notably Malcolm X, who spent two days in Gaza in 1964. But for Wayne University political science professor Ronald Brown, Biden’s problems with Michigan’s Arab, Muslim, and black people are “combined,” “linked together in terms of the age cohort phenomenon,” a traditionally Democratic demographic with which Biden has struggled and is now making overtures to with climate change and student loans.
“Younger black Americans are saying they see themselves linked to the Palestinian cause, and that goes back to George Floyd,” Brown said from Wayne County, which includes Detroit and Dearborn. “I think the George Floyd murder during COVID reenergized or reinforced this idea among black activists about color and race and oppression.”
Michigan State University political science assistant professor Nura Sediqe also pointed to the 2014 protests in Ferguson, Missouri, after the death of Michael Brown.
“Between young Democrats, progressive Jews, Arab Americans, American Muslims, this is a story that’s bigger than just Arab Americans because the concern over Gaza spreads into particularly young Americans,” Sediqe said. “Young Americans — we call them the TikTok generation — they’re information sharing between themselves on these social networks, and they’re much more attuned and sort of in favor of a ceasefire in a way that other generations aren’t.”
It remains to be seen what repercussions Tuesday’s primary, in which Democrats who oppose Biden’s approach to the war are being implored to mark themselves as “uncommitted” or otherwise express their disapproval, happening during spring break will have on the election. The Listen to Michigan campaign, endorsed by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud, and even 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, is aiming for 10,000 “uncommitted” votes on Tuesday. Biden won Michigan in the 2020 election by 154,000 votes. Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to former President Donald Trump in the 2016 election by less than 11,000 votes.
University of Michigan Center for Middle East and North African Studies professor emeritus Ronald Stockton contended the war could “cost” Biden the 2024 election, agreeing with Brown and Sediqe that it has had “largely generational” political ramifications.
“I think, in the fall, what is going to happen is that a large number of people simply won’t vote, and that’s why Biden is in danger of losing,” Stockton said. “They’re just going to say, ‘I don’t care,’ or they’ll vote down ballot. … Those people who are anti-Biden are not going to vote for Trump, but what they might do is just stay home, and that’s going to be deadly because that’s why Clinton lost Michigan in [2016].”
“If they don’t show up in ’24, Biden is doomed,” Stockton added, acknowledging Trump does have support among more conservative Arab and Muslim voters.
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Brown additionally drew comparisons with Vietnam, which arguably lost Democrats the 1968 election, adding black faith leaders are also under pressure to “make public statements” on the war.
“Young black, Latino, and Arab American voters in this state, if they particularly — if they stay home, because it’s so close to Wayne County — I mean, Wayne County is critical in terms of if you lose this area, he could lose … Michigan,” Brown said. “If Israel decides to stay in Gaza — it would look like they’re going to — in November, it may still be fresh in the minds of people. … All you need is 1% or 2% of younger voters to stay home. That’s all you need. You don’t need that much. It’s that close.”
