Democrats are looking to shift their message ahead of the 2024 election to be a referendum on former President Donald Trump in an effort to salvage at least one chamber of Congress and be a check on the Republican Party.
After President Joe Biden’s worse-than-expected performance in the first presidential debate last week, some Democrats have openly admitted they expect to lose the White House in November. As a result, vulnerable incumbents may look to distance themselves from the president and instead turn up the heat on Trump as a way to prevent Republicans from also snagging both chambers of Congress.
While Republicans are favored to win control of the Senate and Biden continues to trail Trump in national polling, the House could be Democrats’ only chance to wield any influence in the federal government come January and act as an obstacle to the GOP agenda — a point lawmakers are hoping resonates with voters in November.
“The stakes are incredibly high this election for all of us. That hasn’t changed after last week,” Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-WA), chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. “The choice this November is crystal clear: Democrats who want to govern responsibly versus extremist Republicans obsessed with tax breaks for billionaires, rolling back reproductive freedom, and defending Trump’s attacks on our democracy. Our candidates are authentic leaders with proven records, and I remain confident Democrats will retake the majority.”
That message could also stick with major Democratic donors, who are already beginning to consider pouring their resources into down-ballot races rather than the White House, according to reports.
“It may come as a surprise to you, but when they saw the performance of Trump, donors doubled down and said, ‘We absolutely have to have the Congress,’” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) told CNN. “So it kind of had an opposite effect in terms of the races.”
It’s not necessarily new for lawmakers to distance themselves from the top of the ticket, either, Pelosi said.
But that doesn’t mean vulnerable Democrats aren’t concerned about what Biden’s candidacy could mean for their races further down the ballot. Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH), who is retiring next year and leaving open a competitive House seat, told CNN she has engaged in conversations with the Biden White House about how the “president’s well-being [is] impacting house races, particularly challenging districts.”
“In order to respond to our constituents’ concerns, we need to demonstrate that the president is fit not just for the job but for the campaign,” Kuster said. “Joe Biden has always done the right thing for his country, so that’s why I expect that this will get resolved. And that Democrats will be united behind the ticket.”
But Republicans have shot back to argue concerns about Biden’s cognitive abilities are not new — even going so far as to accuse Democrats of misleading voters about his mental fitness.
“Extreme House Democrats still can’t even muster the courage to say what the entire world knows — Joe Biden isn’t fit to serve,” said Will Reinert, national press secretary for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They spent years saying he is ‘smart as a fox and strong as a bull,’ and regrets can’t erase those clips that will be playing on repeat in political attack ads.”
Meanwhile, several House Democrats are hoping to turn the post-debate conversation into a conversation about Trump’s debate performance, which many lawmakers argued was full of lies and misleading attacks on the president.
“Here’s what I know. I watched 90 minutes of former President Trump lying about everything. He’s a congenital liar,” said Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT). “I would rather have a man who is kind, who has values, who has a record of standing up for regular Americans and believes in something larger than themselves.”
The strategy is reminiscent of when Democrats used the 2018 midterm elections to rebuke the Trump administration, resulting in massive wins for the party in a so-called “blue wave.”
It’s no surprise Democrats may try that playbook again to flip the House in November, some strategists say. However, it may not be enough if Trump continues to lead Biden by substantial margins.
“I think it is their only choice, but I doubt it will work,” GOP strategist John Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “If Trump wins big, the House” will reflect that.
But some Democratic strategists warned against making the 2024 election a referendum on Trump, arguing lawmakers should remain focused on GOP policy matters that are unpopular with voters in their districts.
“In general, I don’t like process arguments [such as]: ‘We need to fight to keep one piece of the House in Democratic control,’” strategist Brad Bannon told the Washington Examiner. “Because I don’t think voters care about process that much. I think it’s more important to make the argument: ‘We need to fight Trump to protect Social Security, abortion rights, and a whole bunch of other things.’”
The math to flip the House is currently in Republicans’ favor, but there are enough pickup opportunities for Democrats to wrest control of the lower chamber.
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Of the 435 seats up for grabs in November, 42 are considered competitive. Most of those are held by Democrats, which gives the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
But of the 42 competitive seats, 17 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into November.
