Election Day is less than six months away, and voters have a familiar choice of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Unless it’s The Godfather Part II, sequels rarely live up to the hype. Although it may look like a 2020 repeat, the stars are competing in a different game and under different rules. This series, ‘Judgment Day: Why 2024 rematch won’t be any old sequel, investigates the key differences from 2020. Part Three is on the first presidential election post Roe v. Wade reversal.
Less than six months until the November election, Democrats are counting on women, infuriated over the Supreme Court striking down the landmark Roe v. Wade case, to save them once again.
Lingering anger over the loss of abortion rights two years ago has led to Democratic victories in multiple elections despite a host of issues threatening the party, including rising grocery and gas prices, protests against the Israel-Hamas war, and growing disapproval of President Joe Biden.
PART ONE: ‘NO ROOM FOR ERROR’ ELECTORAL MAP HAMPERS BIDEN’S REMATCH WITH TRUMP
PART TWO: BIDEN ONCE BACKED PROTESTS ON WAY TO 2020 WIN. NOW, HE’S THEIR TARGET
After stinging defeats in the 2022 midterm elections and numerous state level ballot measures, Republicans, led by former President Donald Trump, have sought to find a middle ground on abortion by allowing states to decide restrictions without federal interference.
But Biden’s reelection campaign and the Democratic Party are banking that the first presidential election without Roe will motivate voters to turnout to retain the Senate and keep the White House. According to AdImpact, Democrats spent $75 million on abortion ads from January 2023 to January 2024. Republicans spent nearly $17 million on ads focusing on abortion during that same time period.
Democrats are trying to test the potency of the issue in red states, such as Florida and Montana. Florida’s Supreme Court approved an amendment enshrining abortion into the state constitution to appear on the ballot, a move Democrats argue could put the Sunshine State in play.
“Floridians are very progressive in terms of policy. Not so much in terms of politics sometimes,” Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) told the Washington Examiner. “We’re gonna change that too. But we’re gonna win this ballot initiative like we’ve won the last four.”
GOP sticks with Trump as he evolves on abortion stance
When the Supreme Court overturned Roe in June 2022, it marked a GOP victory decades in the making.
Trump took credit for the “biggest win for life in a generation” because of his nominations of the three Supreme Court justices that paved the way for Roe to get struck down. He would continue to brag about his actions for the next two years.
Thousands of women, many of whom are Democrats, took to the streets to protest the ruling. And then they went to the voting booths.
Democrats staved off serious electoral losses during the 2022 midterms by running on abortion access and reproductive rights. They kept control of the Senate and faced tight margins in the GOP-controlled House. Ballot measures limiting abortion have been soundly rejected in multiple states, and Democrats performed well during the 2023 off-year elections by running on supporting abortion access.
Faced with the continuous electoral losses, some GOP candidates have sought to moderate their stance not just on abortion but on other reproductive issues including IVF and contraceptives.
But the issue hasn’t proven easy to solve even as the GOP slams Democrats for being too extreme on abortion.
Trump has struggled to stick to a consistent position. He faced blowback during the primary season when he called six-week abortion bans “terrible.”
“I think what he did is a terrible thing and a terrible mistake,” Trump said of Gov. Ron DeSantis signing a six-week abortion ban into law in Florida.
Trump wavered on endorsing a 15-week federal abortion ban going back-and-forth on his support or outright dodging the question. In January, he caused consternation when he advised the GOP to face the reality of the unpopularity of abortion bans.
“We’re living in a time when there has to be a little bit of a concession one way or the other,” the former president said during a Fox News town hall. “I will say this: You have to win elections.”
Yet Republicans remain dismissive that abortion will kneecap the party again.
“President Trump has long been consistent in supporting the rights of states to make decisions on abortion,” said Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “Joe Biden and the Democrats are radically out of touch with the majority of Americans in their support for abortion up until birth and even after birth, and forcing taxpayers to fund it.”
“Try and lie as he might, Dishonest Joe is as extreme as they come on abortion. Voters deserve to know the truth,” added Republican National Committee spokeswoman Rachel Lee.
Trump’s comments in April where he appeared to moderate his stance on abortion led to swift blowback from antiabortion leaders, including the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America group and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
“My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both,” Trump said in the video posted on Truth Social in early April. “And whatever they decide must be the law of the land — in this case, the law of the state.”
The former president notably did not embrace a federal abortion ban during the video.
Republicans and antiabortion activists upset over Trump’s comments remain by his side in opposition to Biden, whom they view as too extreme.
“The stakes in 2024 are higher than ever as the pro-abortion Left floods pro-life states with millions of dollars to rewrite their constitutions, and Democrats vow to scrap the rules of the Senate to force unlimited second and third trimester abortions on every state,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
“We know what doesn’t win elections: the ‘ostrich strategy’ of burying one’s head in the sand and hoping this issue goes away,” Dannenfelser continued. “Pro-life candidates must go on offense to expose their opponents’ extremism and put money into their message.”
Hogan and Brown model new counter to Democratic attacks
Public support for abortion remains steady with 63% of participants in a recent Pew Research Survey saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 36% saying it should be illegal in all or most cases.
In a sign of how potent the issue is Maryland’s Republican Senate nominee, Larry Hogan said he would support codifying Roe into law and the state’s constitution. Hogan is running against Prince George’s County executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is backed by the pro-abortion group Emily’s List, for the open Senate seat.
“I support restoring Roe as the law of the land,” Hogan told the New York Times. “I’ll continue to protect the rights of women to make their own reproductive choices just like I did as governor for eight years.”
Republican Sam Brown, who is running in the Nevada senatorial GOP primary, attempted to downplay his stance on abortion as he seeks to take on vulnerable Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) in November.
Like Trump, Brown says the issue is best left to states and he doesn’t support a federal abortion ban. Brown’s work with a local antiabortion group has also been downplayed.
His wife, Amy Brown, went public with her abortion earlier this year pressuring the GOP to speak about abortion in a compassionate manner.
Ariel Hill-Davis, a Republican strategist and founder of Republican Women for Progress, said the GOP will need to figure out better ways to campaign on women’s healthcare.
“This isn’t a winning issue for us politically. It just isn’t,” Hill-David said. “And until we find ways to get behind policies or initiatives that aren’t just about taking away access to something that people have become accustomed to having access to, it is going to continue being a very big political weak spot for us.”
Democrats look to abortion ballot measures for boost
Organizers in battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada along with Florida are working to gain ballot measures for the November election.
Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom claims it has surpassed the 102,362 signature threshold to qualify for an abortion ballot measure. Arizona for Abortion Access also announced it has more than the 383,923 signatures needed for the ballot measure.
“What we’ve seen since 2022 is an unbroken string of victories with ballot initiatives,” said Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of Women’s March. “And I think we’re going to continue to see that type of turnout at the polls.”
Democrats are even working on an abortion ballot measure in Montana to boost vulnerable Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) reelection bid.
“What people need to see from the Democrats is that Democrats will fight,” O’Leary Carmona cautioned. “We want to see you fight and be as ruthless in defense of our values as the opposition is in defense of theirs.”
The Democratic super PAC American Bridge 21st Century is spending $25 million through early June in abortion-themed ads against Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The ads are the first wave of a $140 million ad campaign against the former president.
The Biden campaign has released several ads featuring testimonials of women who have suffered pregnancy complications and were unable to receive medical care due to state laws limiting abortion access.
Kamala Harris, as the nation’s first woman vice president, has emerged as the top abortion defender on the Biden campaign, traveling to Florida for a campaign rally on the same day a six-week abortion ban, signed into law by DeSantis (R-FL), went into effect.
Other Democrats scoffed when the Washington Examiner asked if voters would be convinced by Trump adopting a moderate abortion stance.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“He’s trying to talk out of both sides of his mouth, and hoping no one will notice,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), a key Biden surrogate.
“Voters are not gonna buy it and all we have to do is play all of his speeches and his claims where he says that, you know, he’s responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade,” added Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), a Biden campaign co-chair.
