Although President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have become their party’s presumptive nominees, the 2024 primary cycle isn’t over just yet.
There are still plenty of down-ballot races to watch for as voters in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio head to the polls Tuesday.
Chief among them are the Republicans vying to run against vulnerable incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and the Republican candidate who will replace ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Biden still continues to face the problem of protest voters as Democrats aim to flip a state Supreme Court in Ohio.
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Here’s what to watch out for on Tuesday.
Who will take on Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown?
One of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in the 2024 race is Sherrod Brown. Republicans are looking at his seat as a key race to flip and help retake control of the upper chamber.
GOP candidates Bernie Moreno, state Sen. Matt Dolan, and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose are all running for the chance to take on Brown in November.
Moreno boasts the backing of Trump, while Dolan is supported by Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and former Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman.
Trump, who carried Ohio twice, appeared at a Saturday rally in Ohio for Moreno, where he slammed Dolan, whose family owns Cleveland’s baseball team and changed the name from the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians, as a “weak RINO.”
The former president also caused national consternation when he predicted dire consequences if he lost the 2024 presidential election. “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a blood bath for the whole — that’s going to be the least of it. It’s going to be a blood bath for the country,” Trump said.
Democrats, including Biden’s reelection campaign, pounced on the remarks as another sign against a second Trump presidency.
The Trump rally for Moreno also saw appearances from Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH).
A special election to replace Kevin McCarthy’s seat
After being ousted from the House speakership last year, McCarthy soon announced his retirement and left Congress in December.
Now the special election to replace him is being held as the House GOP maintains narrow control of the lower chamber.
Top contenders to represent California’s 20th Congressional District for the rest of McCarthy’s term include Republican Assemblymember Vince Fong, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, and Democrat Marisa Wood.
As the front-runner, Fong has the backing of McCarthy and Trump. He is looking to hit the 50% mark on Tuesday to avoid a May 21 runoff election.
(A separate primary to replace McCarthy for a full term beginning in January 2025 was held nearly two weeks ago on March 5. Fong received the most votes and will face Boudreaux in November.)
Wood, a Democrat, is facing an uphill climb in a reliably red district.
Biden still dealing with protest votes
As the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Biden is safe from the campaign of author Marianne Williamson.
But he still faces some protest votes from people dissatisfied with his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. In Washington state, at least 86,652 voters opted to vote “uncommitted” instead of for Biden. This follows the more than 101,000 Michigan primary voters who cast an “uncommitted” ballot and the 97,182 voters in Minnesota who did the same.
Kansas and Arizona could send Biden another message of the anger Arab, Muslim, and younger voters are feeling by not voting for the president on Tuesday.
Kansas voters can opt for the “none of the names shown” on the ballot, but it is not home to a significant Muslim or Arab population as Michigan and Minnesota are.
The national Vote for Ceasefire campaign in Arizona has organized supporters to vote for Williamson on Tuesday since there isn’t an uncommitted or write-in option on the ballot.
Illinois doesn’t have an uncommitted option on the ballot, but disaffected voters could write in another non-Biden candidate. Florida isn’t holding a Democratic presidential primary as Biden is their only candidate. In Ohio, Williamson isn’t even on the ballot.
The race to replace retired Ohio GOP Rep. Bill Johnson
Voters in Ohio’s 6th District will cast their ballot on who will replace former Republican Rep. Bill Johnson. (Johnson resigned in January to become president of Youngstown State University.)
They will also vote for the candidates who will face off in a November general election for a full congressional term that begins January 2025.
Republican Rick Tsai is running on his advocacy for East Palestine residents who suffered from a train derailment more than one year ago. Tsai, though, faces competition from state Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus, who are more financed than Tsai.
Meanwhile, Rylan Finzer, a small business owner, and Michael Kripchak, an Air Force veteran and restaurant worker, are battling in the Democratic primary to replace Johnson.
Democrats aiming to flip control of Ohio Supreme Court
Tuesday’s primaries will give Democrats an opportunity to select a candidate who could help the party flip the state Supreme Court’s 4-3 partisan control.
Democrats are defending two seats of the three seats they currently hold on the high court while vying for the open seat.
Democrat Judge Lisa Forbes, an 8th U.S. District Court of Appeals judge, and Judge Terri Jamison, a 10th District judge, are vying for the open seat to take on Republican Dan Hawkins, a judge on the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas.
The open seat was represented by Republican Justice Joe Deters, who was appointed to replace Justice Sharon Kennedy after she was elected chief justice in 2022. Deters is opting instead to run for the full six-year term seat against incumbent Democratic Justice Melody Stewart.
The Ohio high court is expected to rule on how constitutional protections for abortion and reproductive rights will be implemented after voters approved a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion access during last year’s off-year elections.
But it will be a hard task for Democrats to maintain both justice seats and win the open seat in a state that has become increasingly Republican: Trump won Ohio twice in 2016 and 2020 while Republicans hold nearly every statewide office.
Illinois GOP incumbent gets primaried
Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL), who represents Illinois’s 12th Congressional District, faces stiff competition from fellow Republican state Sen. Darren Bailey, a right-flank candidate.
Bost has the backing of Trump and the fundraising advantage over Bailey, who is supported by conservative firebrand Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and House Freedom Caucus member Mary Miller (R-IL).
“While I like and respect Darren Bailey, and was proud to campaign for him in 2022, Mike Bost was one of the first House committee chairmen to endorse my campaign, and Mike was a stalwart supporter of our America First agenda during my record-setting administration,” Trump said in a Truth Social post in February.
Bailey was also supported by Trump during his failed 2022 gubernatorial challenge against Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL).
Gaetz’s support of Bailey is somewhat unsurprising due to his complicated history with Bost. After Gaetz successfully helped to oust McCarthy, Bost reportedly lunged at Gaetz during a closed-door hearing.
Republicans eye Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s seat
Republicans are hopeful they can flip Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s 9th District seat in Ohio, one of the most vulnerable House Democratic candidates this cycle.
State Rep. Derek Merrin, former state Rep. Craig Riedel, and former Napoleon Mayor Steve Lankenau are running against each other in the GOP primary. The winner seeks to end Kaptur’s reign as the longest-serving woman in Congress.
Merrin has the backing of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), while Riedel is backed by Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH).
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Republican candidate J.R. Majewski suspended his campaign earlier this month in the wake of offensive comments he made about Special Olympics athletes. This was his second time exiting the primary field after he first dropped out in May 2023. He then resumed his campaign in October.
(Kaptur defeated Majewski by 13 percentage points in 2022.)
