While polls show President Joe Biden running neck and neck with former President Donald Trump, a deeper dive reveals Biden staring down a mutiny within his own party before a 2024 general election showdown.
In recent months, the president has encountered bubbling opposition among Democrats over his age, handling of the war in Gaza, inability to make good on all of his campaign promises, and more. This groundswell of dissatisfaction is especially prevalent in voters of color and voters under the age of 35.
The Washington Examiner examined five national general election polls taken in February that show Biden holding an unenviable, quantifiable lead over Trump when it comes to dissatisfaction within his own base. The polls don’t contain the exact same language in their questioning but, altogether, represent a concerning trend for the president that likely cannot be ignored heading into November.
A poll conducted by the Economist and YouGov between Feb. 25-27 showed a greater number of Democrats not wanting “Biden to run for president again in 2024” than Republicans who feel the same way about Trump. The poll sampled 1,688 respondents and found that 26% of Democrats didn’t want Biden, compared to 17% of Republicans who didn’t want Trump.
A poll from Harvard Harris, conducted between Feb. 21-22 among 2,022 registered voters, found that 67% of Democrats believe the “country needs another choice” for president, compared to 51% of Republicans who said the same. That poll found 62% of Democrats would consider a “moderate, independent candidate” in the coming election compared to 43% of Republicans.
The Harris X poll sampling 3,024 registered voters between Feb. 12-16 found that 38% of Democrats flat-out don’t want Biden to run again in 2024. Just 23% of Republicans said the same about Trump.
Morning Consult’s poll conducted between Feb. 23 and 25 among 6,224 registered voters showed both Biden and Trump pulling overwhelming support from their own parties, 84% and 88%, respectively. However, Trump’s lead widens slightly when examining votes through the lens of the previous election. There, Trump pulls 89% of his 2020 supporters, while Biden earns 83% from his 2020 winning coalition. Meanwhile, Morning Consult also found that Trump holds a 1-point lead over Biden when it comes to the “double hater” vote, or voters who say they do not support either candidate.
And a poll conducted by Emerson College Feb. 13-14 among 1,224 registered voters underlines Biden’s greatest electoral weakness, or at least the one he has absolutely no control over: his age. The president would be 82 years old when sworn in for a second term in office, and 45% of Democrats told Emerson they are worried about Biden’s age. For comparison, Trump’s 91 federal indictments and other legal problems, widely viewed as the top reason he should be blocked from a second term in the White House, concerned just 30% of Republicans.
Furthermore, Biden is more hampered by outside candidates than Trump. The president is facing two primary challenges in the form of Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson, though neither poses a serious threat to take home the Democratic nomination in August. Williamson is running far to the president’s left, while Phillips, who votes nearly in lockstep with the White House, is 26 years younger than Biden.
That dynamic could manifest itself in the general election when Biden will also have to woo progressive votes back from independent candidate Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, both of whom are more progressive than Biden and roughly a decade younger. Trump might also be harmed by third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., though it appears that Trump holds a stronger grip over his base than Biden.
Much of these dynamics played out Tuesday in Michigan. Though both Biden and Trump cruised to easy victories in their respective primaries, more than 100,000 Democratic participants voted for “uncommitted” over Biden, accounting for roughly 13% of all Democratic participants.
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But in a hotly contested battleground like Michigan, 100,000 votes could determine not only the state election but the entire Electoral College results. Biden carried the Great Lakes State by just over 154,000 votes in 2020.
Meanwhile, a poll published on Thursday by Bloomberg and Morning Consult showed Biden trailing Trump in seven battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin. That same poll found that, across all states, 80% of respondents believe Biden is too old to be president, while 60% claim that Trump is too dangerous for office.
