Considering the distrust he aired about the Electoral College voting in 2020 and the blame laid at his feet for the Jan. 6 Capitol riot over the electoral vote count, it would be no surprise if former President Donald Trump’s team had little use for electoral forecasts.
But they are focused on them, and the reason is simple and obvious: In four major electoral vote counts, Trump is leading by as many as 66, just two shy of President Joe Biden’s margin of victory in 2020, 306-232. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.
National public opinion polls have long shown a race stuck at even with few exceptions. Those, however, are becoming less important to watch than the surveys in key battleground states where the electoral vote matters.
There, Trump has a lead, giving the Trump team greater confidence in victory in the fall and prompting Biden’s campaign to spend millions on advertising to catch up.
“Joe Biden and his allies have been spending tens of millions in attack ads there,” Republican pollster John McLaughlin said.
“For weeks, Joe Biden has visited these states while his henchmen have had President Trump tied up in Manhattan,” he said.
“In spite of it all, the polls have President Trump winning the battleground states, and if anything, the battleground has expanded to Virginia, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Maine — maybe even New York,” he added.
McLaughlin said Biden’s offer to debate Trump was likely a move to shake up the race and help the president catch up in the battleground states, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
“Why else would incumbent Joe Biden want to debate? If President Trump keeps winning, I’m sure [New York hush money case] Judge Juan Merchan will get his orders to put President Trump in jail. President Trump is winning a historic battle,” McLaughlin added.
Trump holds his widest electoral advantage in an Economist analysis. He leads in that survey 302-236. The analysis gives Trump a 70% chance of winning in November.
In a Decision Desk forecast, Trump leads 282-256 and has a 58% chance of winning.
JHK Forecasts puts his electoral lead at 36, 287-251. In that, he has a 62% chance of winning the White House back.
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And in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, Trump is just winning, with 270 electoral votes to Biden’s 268.
Even Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia and a Trump critic has the Republican up. The school’s Center for Politics “crystal ball” has Trump leading Biden 251-241.
