Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in must-win Virginia, according to a new poll.
A Virginia Commonwealth University-Wilder School poll shows Trump leading Biden 39%-36% in the Old Dominion. The survey was conducted among 806 adults in the commonwealth from June 24 through July 3, meaning the survey was asked shortly before and after the June 27 debate between Biden and Trump but had concluded polling prior to the assassination attempt on the former president on Saturday.
The survey shows while Trump has similar support to the January VCU poll, 39% in July versus 40% in January, Biden has dropped roughly 7 points, from 43% in January to 36% in July. Trump’s campaign has argued it can make a play for Virginia and other typically Democratic states.
“I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency,” VCU faculty member and former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder said in a press release.
A poll released Monday from the New York Times and Siena College showed Biden with a 3-point lead over Trump in Virginia, well within that survey’s margin of error. Trump’s lead in the VCU poll also falls within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.81 points.
Virginia has been rated “likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report, and a Republican presidential candidate has not won the state since 2004, when then-President George W. Bush did so. However, Republicans did win all three of the most recent statewide races, for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, in 2021.
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Biden’s poor polling in battleground states, including Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, has the Trump campaign eyeing states including Virginia and Minnesota.
In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump and Biden are tied in Virginia. In the national average, Trump leads Biden, 47.1%-44.4%.
