With this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race locked in a monthlong tie, President-elect Donald Trump’s early performance in office will likely be the deal-maker — or breaker — for Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
In polls released this week, Earle-Sears and former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger remain locked in a close race, continuing their dead heat of last year.
In an Emerson College Polling/the Hill survey, Spanberger led by 1 point, and in a just-released survey from the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University, the Democrat has a five-point lead.
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Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said the polls show that each is within the margin of error and that “right now, this is anyone’s game.”
Bromley-Trujillo told Secrets that because Virginia gubernatorial races follow a year after presidential elections, the president can have a big impact, positive or negative.
For example, she noted that when President Joe Biden’s popularity tanked in his first year in office following his disastrous troop withdrawal plan in Afghanistan, he was unable to help Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe win.
“I would argue that Biden absolutely hurt McAuliffe,” she said.
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Typically, she added, the winner in the commonwealth’s governor’s race is from a party different from the president.
But Trump is different and it is hard to determine his impact. While voters in her new survey do not expect him to be successful, he also succeeded in winning more minority votes, which is an area where Earle-Sears underperforms.
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“Whatever happens with Trump, I think will be a huge factor in this governor’s race,” she said, adding, “for Trump, if he’s popular, if people are happy with the job he’s doing, that absolutely helps Earle-Sears. If Trump is unpopular, people are reacting negatively to whatever he’s doing, that absolutely helps Spanberger.”
She also shrugged off the pre-presidential election tiff between Earle-Sears and Trump. Earle-Sears had suggested that it was time for the GOP to pick a new candidate, not Trump.
“Certainly, Trump was not happy, not pleased with that, and you don’t typically want to make an enemy of Donald Trump. But really, since then, she has been very supportive of Donald Trump, and certainly, during the election season, she has been very supportive of him,” said Bromley-Trujillo.
Also, her poll revealed a secret weapon for Earle-Sears: popular Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
The survey found that Youngkin has maintained his popularity during his term-limited four years, and now has a 53% approval rating in the state that is considered Democratic.
“I think he will absolutely be a benefit to Earle-Sears on many levels. Fundraising, absolutely. You’ve got a popular governor, Earle-Sears is the lieutenant governor. She’s able to kind of sell a broad platform that they have been addressing together as they’ve been leading the state over the last few years. So I think certainly Youngkin is a benefit to Earle-Sears. We’ll have to see just how much of that really helps her, but certainly I see it as a positive for her,” said Bromley-Trujillo.
Of note in the poll, Virginians are unusually pleased under Youngkin. Some 49% said that the commonwealth is headed in the right direction versus 31% who said the wrong direction.
Also influencing the gubernatorial race is the sizable number of voters who are mulling their choice. While Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 44%-39%, 16% are undecided. Both black voters and Republicans are in that undecided mix.
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Bromley-Trujillo said that once Republicans get behind Earle-Sears, the first black woman to be lieutenant governor, the race should tighten further.
“Spanberger is doing really well within her own party. She’s already got 95% of Democrats behind her, whereas Earle-Sears has 87% of Republicans backing her. What that really tells me is that Earle-Sears has room to grow because partisans tend to come home to their respective parties’ candidates much closer to the general election date, and so certainly, I would expect those numbers to come up for Earle-Sears between now and Election Day,” said Bromley-Trujillo.
