Debate for two
Voters who tuned in to the GOP primary debates last year are going to have a much different viewing experience on Thursday. Rather than the crowded stage stuffed with candidates, the event in Atlanta is going to be a head-to-head matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
There is a third man ostensibly running for president in 2024 who has polled, sometimes, in the double digits nationally. But as National Political Correspondent Mabinty Quarshie wrote for us this morning in the third installment of our Matter of Debate series, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. isn’t going to appear onstage with the pair of presidents — a possibly fatal blow to a campaign that has found itself in freefall.
“CNN’s audience would have given Kennedy one of the largest platforms to sell his case to the public as an alternative to the two main contenders. But the Kennedy member proved unable to reach CNN’s requirement of 15% in four reputable national polls and reach enough state ballots to garner 270 Electoral College votes, theoretically,” Mabinty wrote.
“Kennedy’s campaign claims it has been approved for ballot access in nine states: California, Delaware, Hawaii, Michigan, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah. The campaign also states it has collected enough signatures in 15 others. In theory, that would give Kennedy access to 323 electoral votes, but the count includes states that have not certified Kennedy,” she wrote.
Despite a general malaise about the 2020 presidential election redux, Kennedy hasn’t bottled the marginal success he experienced out of the gate. He has faced a combination of hostility from President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee, which have made a concerted effort to beat back the challenger. And there has been a concerted effort by the Trump team to paint the Kennedy black sheep as more of a left-wing concern than a centrist alternative.
A no-show on Thursday isn’t the end of the road for Kennedy, as Mabinty reminded us.
“Although Kennedy won’t be on the debate stage, there is still an opportunity to make ABC News’s presidential debate on Sept. 10, which has the same requirements as the first debate. He reached 15% in three national polls ahead of the CNN debate and could reach 15% in four national polls before September,” she wrote.
But losing out a chance to make a statement with a massive audience that will chew on the results for the next two months before the next debate in September could slash the campaign’s sails struggling to keep wind in them.
Click here to read Mabinty’s deep dive on the missed opportunity for RFK Jr. and everything it could mean for his struggling campaign.
About last night
Tuesday night’s primary contests served up results for some of the most visible members of Congress. High-profile contests in New York showed Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) had polar opposite evenings despite hitting the campaign trail together.
Out west, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) was running for her future in a new district, and Utah voters went to the polls to replace the high-profile retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT).
Mabinty stayed up late to round up the biggest takeaways for the Washington Examiner.
Split ‘Squad’ in New York
“Bowman became the first member of the ‘Squad’ ousted from Congress after George Latimer won the Democratic primary in New York’s 16th District,” Mabinty wrote. “It was a strong rebuke for House progressives from pro-Israel groups and establishment Democrats who opposed Bowman’s controversial comments on the war in Gaza.”
The fiery but controversial Bowman had been trending down for months, and even with the support of Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), the contest was over almost as soon as polls closed on Tuesday night.
“The Associated Press called the race for Latimer almost 40 minutes after the polls closed. Latimer won 59.6% of the vote compared to Bowman’s 40.4%, with 82% of the ballots counted as of late Tuesday night,” Mabinty wrote.
Boebert avoids a bombshell
“Boebert prevailed in Colorado’s 4th District GOP primary, which featured five other opponents vying to replace former GOP Rep. Ken Buck,” Mabinty wrote. “The Colorado congresswoman won 43% of the vote, with 89% of the ballots counted, according to the Associated Press.”
Running in a new district after winning a nail-biter in 2022, Boebert overcame a series of embarrassing incidents, including her unceremonious removal from a theater for vaping and groping her date, to firm up her chances to return to Washington next year.
Romney retires and Curtis comes out on top
“Rep. John Curtis (R-UT) won the Utah Senate GOP primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). Curtis, who represents the 3rd District in the House, won nearly 52% of the vote, with 75% of the ballots counted, according to the Associated Press,” Mabinty wrote.
“Romney did not endorse in the race, but Curtis was the candidate most similar to the outgoing senator. Curtis has not endorsed Trump’s presidential campaign but has said he will support the Republican nominee for president,” she wrote.
Tough night for Trump
He continues to be the standard-bearer and leader of the party, but Trump’s record of backing winning candidates was tarnished Tuesday night after, as Mabinty pointed out.
“Trump’s near-perfect endorsement record lost some of its luster after Pastor Mark Burns lost the South Carolina GOP primary in the 3rd District to Sheri Biggs, who was backed by Gov. Henry McMaster (R-SC),” she wrote.
The former president hasn’t backed many losing candidates this year. Tuesday’s losses were the clear outlier and probably won’t end up diminishing the power of the former president’s backing. All of his losses on Tuesday were in contests that aren’t likely to be competitive in November, so the more important factor will be how the winners get on with Trump if he beats Biden.
Trump broke ranks with friends and allies to make the ultimately failing endorsements. The former president helped secure McMaster’s position as governor in 2017.
Fallout from Tuesday could show how a fractured GOP will navigate victory or defeat up and down ballots in November.
Click here for a look at the rest of Tuesday’s most important storylines.
Biden’s debt to student voters
Biden made big promises to students when he was running in 2020. Those promises, primarily to forgive billions of dollars in student loan debt, might have been the difference between victory and defeat. But while he transferred more than $5 billion in student debt from borrowers back onto taxpayers, he hasn’t delivered on his full promise after the Supreme Court shot down his broadest attempt at debt forgiveness.
And the problems keep coming, as White House Reporter Haisten Willis wrote today.
“President Joe Biden‘s plans to cancel student loan debt have been partially blocked thanks to a pair of court rulings, but the matter remains alive for both sides in the 2024 election,” Haisten wrote.
After two Republican attorneys general in Missouri and Kansas challenged the Biden administration’s actions to use the Saving on a Valuable Education program to forgive millions of dollars more in debt, federal judges came down on the side of the states.
“The two judges, both Obama appointees, did not fully block the SAVE plan. Debt for 414,000 borrowers in the amount of $5.5 billion has already been forgiven, and the rulings will not attempt to claw those amounts back,” Haisten wrote. “But far larger amounts that would be written off over the next 10 years have been put on hold for now.”
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Student debt could be a live subject on Thursday night as Biden makes his pitch to voters they should return him to the White House rather than Trump. But Trump’s camp has already made sure to highlight attempts Biden has made to make good on his promise that have been slapped down.
“[Biden] did that with the tuition, and that didn’t work out too well,” Trump said at a recent rally in Racine, Wisconsin. “He got rebuked, and then he did it again, it’s going to get rebuked again. Even more so, it’s an even more vile attack, but he did that with tuition just to get publicity with the election.”
Click here to read the latest in the student debt forgiveness saga.
