Vice President Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket has her party more bullish about flipping multiple congressional seats in the Midwest and expanding its footprint in the House.
There’s a big blue target on the backs of vulnerable Republicans in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan, according to a new Politico report.
Some of the Midwestern seats were previously viewed as out of reach for Democrats but have been increasingly viewed as pickups for Democrats given Harris’s gains across the country.
Iowa’s Meeks faces Democratic challenger
Democrats are, for the third cycle in a row, targeting a flip in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, pouring resources into ousting Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA).
Miller-Meeks won her first election in the southeastern Iowa district by just six votes in 2020. Two years later, she defeated Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan by a safe 7 percentage points.
But Bohannan challenged Miller-Meeks to a rematch this election cycle, and Democrats believe she stands a real chance of flipping the seat this time around. Miller-Meeks faces low favorability ratings in her district, just 355, according to Politico. Given her perceived weakness, Democrats are pouring millions into ousting her.
The lower chamber’s chief Democratic super PAC said earlier this month it would pour $2.3 million into boosting Bohannan. The House Majority PAC’s announcement came after it funneled $350,000 into the 1st District race in July.
Iowa’s Baccam closes in on Nunn
Iowa’s purple 3rd District has Democratic hopes even higher. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) flipped the seat red when he narrowly defeated Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne two years ago.
New polling reportedly has Democratic challenger Lanon Baccam within 1 point of Nunn.
With $6.8 million in Democratic funding funneled to Baccam, the Democrats have outspent Nunn’s $5.7 million, according to AdImpact.
The race is still rated as “Leans Republican”, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Wisconsin challenger polls ahead of Republican incumbent
Just north of Iowa, Democrats hope to pick up another House seat in neighboring Wisconsin.
A new poll by the Democratic House Majority PAC shows Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) is trailing his challenger by 2 points in the state’s 3rd District.
Rebecca Cooke now leads Orden 49% to 47% in a district former President Donald Trump won by nearly 5 points in 2020. The poll holds a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee signaled it viewed Orden as a top target when it added Cooke to the organization’s “Red to Blue” program last month. Meanwhile, the Democratic-led House Majority PAC has funneled millions into the race in recent months.
Orden, who is a former Navy SEAL, is endorsed by Trump. He flipped the Wisconsin seat red in 2022 for the first time in decades and held a major fundraising advantage over Cooke at the end of July.
Last but not least: Michigan
In Michigan, the Democratic Party is targeting the incumbent Republican representative from the state’s 10th District.
The House Majority PAC is backing Democratic candidate and former federal judge Carl Marlinga with a $1.4 TV ad buy starting Tuesday. The DCCC added Marlinga to the organization’s Red to Blue program alongside Cooke in August.
A Democrat hasn’t represented the Michigan district since 2003, though Rep. John James (R-IA) only won the seat by 0.5% in 2022.
Marlinga is hopeful Harris’s presence at the top of his party’s ticket will help propel him to victory this November. National polling indicates Harris holds a razor-thin lead over Trump in Michigan.
Before President Joe Biden dropped his bid for reelection in July, he trailed Trump in the battleground state. Harris now holds a slim lead over the GOP leader in the state.
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Top Democrats are hopeful Harris’s momentum will help expand their party’s footprint in both chambers of Congress. Republicans hold a slim four-seat advantage in the House.
“We’re very euphoric now,” former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in August as she reflected on Harris’s impact on the 2024 elections. “Everybody’s excited. I just got on my phone a message from one of our candidates in the Midwest, saying, ‘My fundraising has gone up 300%, my volunteers 150%, my polls are good.’”
