Montana voters will nominate their Republican and Democratic Senate candidates next week in a hotly contested race that is quickly escalating and could determine control of the upper chamber.
Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) strategy to secure a fourth consecutive term this November hinges on distancing himself from President Joe Biden, as the incumbent hopes to win over enough Republicans in a state where former President Donald Trump dominated in 2020 by more than 16 points.
“[The race] is as tight as a tick on a hound dog,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “Given his political situation, which is pretty hairy, his best move is to emphasize his local roots.”
Tester is a virtual shoo-in for Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Big Sky Country. He faces one opponent, Democrat Michael Hummert, who has not filed any campaign finance reports and does not appear to have an operating budget.
Republican and ex-Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy is heavily favored in the GOP primary against former Montana Public Service Commissioner Brad Johnson and past congressional candidate Charles Walking Child. Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-MT) exit from the race in February after only being in it for six days cleared the way for Sheehy.
Democrats cannot afford to lose Montana or any of the other half-dozen battleground Senate races in order to keep majority control.
Tester is facing heightened scrutiny from national Republicans for what they say is taking “credit for opposing Biden policies he supported,” including measures on energy, the pandemic, and illegal immigration. Over the course of 65 pages in two separate memos viewed by the Washington Examiner, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, has laid out extensive point-by-point rebuttals.
“In reality, Jon Tester’s record shows a distinct love for Biden and equal disdain for President Trump,” one of the NRSC memos reads.
The Tester campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Tester has a two-page policy memo that a spokesperson for his office said was evidence that the Democrat “has a long-standing track record of consistently and repeatedly standing up to President Biden and his administration.”
“False claims from Senator Tester’s opponents that he only opposes his party because it is an ‘election year’ could not be further from the truth,” the Tester memo reads. “Just look at his consistent record of standing up to anyone — including President Biden — when it’s the right thing to do for Montana.”
Tester has sought to draw a contrast with Biden on border security in particular, as Democrats try to flip the script on the influx of illegal crossings that the Biden administration’s policies have contributed to. Tester boasted in a recent campaign ad that he “worked with Republicans, fighting to shut down the border … and he fought to stop President Biden from letting migrants stay in America.”
Tester is the lone Democrat to co-sponsor the Laken Riley Act, a GOP-championed illegal immigration bill named after a 22-year-old Georgia nursing student who was allegedly killed by an undocumented immigrant previously released by New York police for a nonviolent crime. He voted against it in the form of an amendment to a government funding bill in March. Changes to the funding measure passed by the House would have triggered a shutdown.
Sheehy has donned Tester the “Flip-Flop Flattop,” a reference to the senator’s haircut.
Hank Sheinkopf, a Democratic strategist whose clients have included former President Bill Clinton and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, described Tester’s two-step approach to border security as politically smart.
“The problem for Tester is Biden,” Sheinkopf said. “He’s a target for the Republicans. If they were able to knock him off, it’d be a big thing for the Republicans. They’re going to put some muscle in it.”
Nonpartisan election forecasters rate the general election race between Tester and Sheehy a toss-up. Recent polls show the two virtually tied and results within the margins of error.
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The contest is likely to be one of the most expensive in the country. Federal campaign finance records show Tester has raised more than $37 million compared to Sheehy’s roughly $10.5 million.
Future ad reservations for the race topped $58 million from Democrats and $63 million from Republicans as of late April, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact Politics.
